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by | Dec 19, 2023 | Impatiens

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Bicester and Woodstock is a constituency of the House of Commons in the UK Parliament.[2] After the completion of the 2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies, it will first be contested at the 2024 general election.

Boundaries

The constituency is composed of the following (as they existed on 1 December 2020):

  • The District of Cherwell wards of: Bicester East; Bicester North & Caversfield; Bicester South & Ambrosden; Bicester West; Fringford & Heyfords; Kidlington East; Kidlington West; Launton & Otmoor.
  • The District of West Oxfordshire wards of: Eynsham and Cassington; Freeland and Hanborough; North Leigh; Stonesfield and Tackley; Woodstock and Bladon.[3]

It comprises the following areas:

Predictions

There have been various MRP national prediction models, which have given the results shown below for Bicester & Woodstock. The accuracy of these for individual seat predictions may be debated, especially where boundary changes have been significant.[4]

Since Bicester and Woodstock is a new constituency, these models conventionally use a notional baseline result of the 2019 election on the 2024 boundaries, jointly commissioned by the Press Association and major broadcasters from the psephologists Michael Thrasher and Colin Rallings.[5]

Notional vote share for 2019 UK general election: Bicester & Woodstock
Date Model CON LAB LDEM BRX GRN Source
12 Dec 2019 Elections Centre 54% 17% 27% 0% 2% [6]
Models of vote share for 2024 UK general election: Bicester & Woodstock
Date Model CON LAB LDEM REF GRN Source
14 Jan 2024 YouGov 29% 20% 37% 7% 5% [7][8]
15 Jan 2024 Electoral Calculus 30% 28% 25% 10% 6% [9]
15 Feb 2024 Electoral Calculus 30% 30% 25% 10% 5% [10]
28 March 2024 Electoral Calculus 28% 30% 26% 12% 4% [11]
30 March 2024 Survation 32% 31% 23% 9% 4% [12]
3 April 2024 YouGov 31% 24% 26% 12% 6% [13]
27 April 2024 Electoral Calculus 27% 31% 25% 12% 4% [14]
21 May 2024 Electoral Calculus 28% 31% 24% 11% 5% [15]
25 May 2024 Economist 32% 30% 19% 8% 7% [16]
25 May 2024 New Statesman 33% 19% 35% 8% 6% [17]
29 May 2024 Financial Times 31% 26% 25% 11% 6% [18]
31 May 2024 UK Polling Report 32% 30% 24% 9% 5% [19]
31 May 2024 Electoral Calculus 32% 23% 32% 8% 4% [20]
3 June 2024 YouGov 32% 22% 32% 9% 4% [21]
3 June 2024 More In Common 36% 24% 27% 6% 6% [22]
4 June 2024 Survation 28% 29% 24% 12% 4% [23]
7 June 2024 Electoral Calculus 32% 22% 32% 10% 4% [24]
7 June 2024 New Statesman 31% 21% 34% 9% 6% [25]
11 June 2024 YouGov 32% 22% 33% 9% 4% [26]
14 June 2024 Electoral Calculus 31% 21% 33% 11% 3% [27]
14 June 2024 UK Polling Report 29% 29% 25% 12% 5% [28]
14 June 2024 Economist 31% 30% 19% 9% 7% [29]
15 Jun 2024 Survation 24% 28% 28% 11% 6% [30]
16 June 2024 New Statesman 32% 20% 34% 9% 6% [31]
18 June 2024 Ipsos 34% 30% 22% 9% 4% [32]
19 June 2024 YouGov 29% 16% 33% 17% 4% [33]
19 June 2024 More in Common 33% 15% 40% 6% 5% [34]
19 June 2024 Savanta 30% 28% 28% 11% 4% [35]
20 June 2024 Economist 30% 29% 20% 10% 8% [36]
21 June 2024 Electoral Calculus 30% 19% 33% 13% 4% [37]
24 June 2024 UK Polling Report 27% 27% 26% 15% 5% [38]
24 June 2024 Focaldata 31% 20% 30% 14% 5% [39]
26 June 2024 Economist / WeThink MRP 31% 29% 25% 9% 5% [40]
26 June 2024 Electoral Calculus 22% 14% 42% 16% 5% [41]
27 June 2024 Economist / WeThink (constituency poll) 30% 31% 31% 3% 3% [42]
30 June 2024 JL Partners / Sunday Times 26% 24% 24% 20% 5% [43]

Members of Parliament

Banbury, Witney, Oxford West & Abingdon and Henley prior to 2024

Election Member Party
2024 TBC TBC

Elections

Elections in the 2020s

General election 2024: Bicester and Woodstock[44]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
SDP Tim Funnell
Conservative Rupert Harrison
Green Ian Middleton
Liberal Democrats Calum Miller
Labour Veronica Oakeshott
Reform UK Augustine Obodo
Majority
Turnout

See also

References

  1. ^ "The 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituency Boundaries in England – Volume two: Constituency names, designations and composition – South East". Boundary Commission for England. Retrieved 13 June 2024.
  2. ^ "The 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituency Boundaries in England – Volume one: Report – South East | Boundary Commission for England". boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk. Retrieved 2023-07-15.
  3. ^ "The Parliamentary Constituencies Order 2023". Schedule 1 Part 6 South East region.
  4. ^ "MRP: what it is and why it may, or may not, be right at the next general election". The Week In Polls. 2023-08-23. Retrieved 2024-05-29.
  5. ^ "Guide to the new Parliamentary Constituencies 2024" (PDF). Elections Centre. January 2024. Retrieved 20 June 2024.
  6. ^ "Notional election for the constituency of Bicester and Woodstock on 12 December 2019". parliament.uk. UK Parliament. January 2024. Retrieved 20 June 2024.
  7. ^ "YouGov MRP shows Labour would win 1997-style landslide if election were held today". YouGov. 15 January 2024. Retrieved 15 January 2024.
  8. ^ "Searchable tool: How would your constituency vote in an election tomorrow?". Telegraph Media Group. 14 January 2024. Retrieved 15 January 2024.
  9. ^ "Electoral Calculus January 2024". Electoral Calculus. Retrieved 15 January 2024.
  10. ^ "Electoral Calculus 14 Feb 2024". Retrieved 14 Feb 2024.
  11. ^ "New Seat Details - Bicester and Woodstock". www.electoralcalculus.co.uk. Retrieved 2024-04-07.
  12. ^ "What We Can Learn From Our Latest MRP (and what we can't)". Survation. 2024-03-31. Retrieved 2024-04-07.
  13. ^ "YouGov MRP – Labour now projected to win over 400 seats | YouGov". yougov.co.uk. Retrieved 2024-04-07.
  14. ^ "New Seat Details - Bicester and Woodstock". www.electoralcalculus.co.uk. Retrieved 2024-05-08.
  15. ^ "New Seat Details - Bicester and Woodstock". www.electoralcalculus.co.uk. Retrieved 2024-05-24.
  16. ^ "The Economist's UK general election forecast". The Economist. Retrieved 2024-05-25.
  17. ^ "Who will win the 2024 UK general election?The definitive forecast model - how the country will vote according to Britain Predicts". The New Statesman. 23 May 2024. Retrieved 2024-05-29.
  18. ^ "Predict the UK general election result". ig.in.ft.com. 2024-05-29. Retrieved 2024-05-29.(subscription required)
  19. ^ "Bicester and Woodstock | E14001090". pollingreport.uk. Retrieved 2024-05-31.
  20. ^ "Bicester and Woodstock: Overview". Retrieved 31 May 2024.
  21. ^ "First YouGov MRP of 2024 general election shows Labour on track to beat 1997 landslide". Retrieved 3 June 2024.
  22. ^ "Labour on course to win a majority of over 100". Retrieved 4 June 2024.
  23. ^ "Survation MRP: Labour Set for Record Breaking Majority". Survation. 2024-06-04. Retrieved 2024-06-05.
  24. ^ "Bicester and Woodstock: Overview". Retrieved 7 June 2024.
  25. ^ "Who will win the 2024 UK general election?". 23 May 2024. Retrieved 11 June 2024.
  26. ^ "UK General Election 2024". YouGov. Retrieved 12 June 2024.
  27. ^ "Bicester and Woodstock: Overview". Retrieved 14 June 2024.
  28. ^ "Bicester and Woodstock | E14001090". pollingreport.uk. Retrieved 2024-06-14.
  29. ^ "The Economist's UK general election forecast". The Economist. Retrieved 2024-06-14.
  30. ^ "MRP Update: First MRP Since Farage's Return". Survation. 2024-06-15. Retrieved 2024-06-15.
  31. ^ "Who will win the 2024 UK general election?". 23 May 2024. Retrieved 16 June 2024.
  32. ^ "Ipsos MRP 18 June". 18 June 2024.
  33. ^ "Second YouGov 2024 election MRP shows Conservatives on lowest seat total in history | YouGov". yougov.co.uk. Retrieved 2024-06-19.
  34. ^ "Labour on course to win a majority of over 100". www.moreincommon.org.uk. Retrieved 2024-06-19.
  35. ^ "MRP Model – Daily Telegraph – 19 June 2024 - Savanta". savanta.com. 2024-06-19. Retrieved 2024-06-19.
  36. ^ "UK general election forecast". The Economist. Retrieved 2024-06-20.
  37. ^ "New Seat Details - Bicester and Woodstock". www.electoralcalculus.co.uk. Retrieved 2024-06-21.
  38. ^ "Bicester and Woodstock | E14001090". pollingreport.uk. Retrieved 2024-06-24.
  39. ^ "Focaldata / Prolific UK General Election MRP". Focaldata. Retrieved 2024-06-24.
  40. ^ "We Think | WeThink MRP: Historic low for the Tories?". wethink.netlify.app. 2024-06-26. Retrieved 2024-06-26.
  41. ^ "New Seat Details - Bicester and Woodstock". www.electoralcalculus.co.uk. Retrieved 2024-06-27.
  42. ^ "WeThink on X: Following swiftly after our MRP release yesterday, it's the 3rd constituency poll for @TheEconomist, this time Bicester & Woodstock". Retrieved 2024-06-28.
  43. ^ "First J.L. Partners SRP Model Shows Labour On Course For A Landslide". JLP. Retrieved 2024-06-30.
  44. ^ Stewart, Gordon (7 June 2024). "Election of a Member of Parliament for Bicester and Woodstock" (PDF). Retrieved 7 June 2024 – via Cherwell District Council.

External links

51°52′N 1°15′W / 51.87°N 1.25°W / 51.87; -1.25


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