Main article: 2004 United States presidential election

The 2004 United States presidential election in Kentucky took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose eight representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Kentucky was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 19.86% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise a red state. Bush widened his margin of victory since his victory in 2000 against Al Gore, the former Senator of neighboring Tennessee, by 4.73%. He made his strongest progress in the eastern part of the state and at the border with Virginia. As of 2020, this is the last time that Kentucky has voted to the left of neighboring Indiana, the last election in which Fayette County has voted for the Republican candidate, and the last in which Knott County, Floyd County, Breathitt County, Bath County, Pike County, Carter County, and Magoffin County voted for the Democratic candidate. This was the first time ever that a Republican won a majority in Ballard County.

This victory coincided with a U.S. Senate election, where controversial Republican incumbent Jim Bunning was narrowly reelected over Daniel Mongiardo, most likely due to Bush's landslide victory.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

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There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[2]

  1. D.C. Political Report: Solid Republican
  2. Associated Press: Solid Bush
  3. CNN: Bush
  4. Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
  5. Newsweek: Solid Bush
  6. New York Times: Solid Bush
  7. Rasmussen Reports: Bush
  8. Research 2000: Solid Bush
  9. Washington Post: Bush
  10. Washington Times: Solid Bush
  11. Zogby International: Bush
  12. Washington Dispatch: Bush

Polling

Bush won every single pre-election poll, and won each by a double-digit margin of victory and with at least 52% of the vote. The final 3 poll averaged Bush leading 57% to 38%.[3]

Fundraising

Bush raised $2,398,982.[4] Kerry raised $1,433,748.[5]

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign advertised or visited this state during the fall campaign.[6][7]

Results

President George W. Bush easily defeated Massachusetts Senator John F. Kerry in Kentucky, capturing the state's 8 electoral votes. Bush did well throughout the state. Kerry only won a handful of counties. Kerry performed decently in coal country in east Kentucky but Kerry fared poorly in other rural parts of the state. Kerry did win Jefferson County, the most populous county in the state and home of Louisville. However this was not enough to overcome Bush's lead. This race was not close, whereas the concurrent senate race was very tight. As of the 2020 presidential election, this is the last election in which Fayette County voted for the Republican candidate and the last election in which Knott County, Floyd County, Breathitt County, Bath County, Pike County, Carter County, and Magoffin County voted for the Democratic candidate. This was the first time ever that a Republican won a majority in Ballard County.

United States presidential election in Kentucky, 2004
Party Candidate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican George W. Bush (incumbent) 1,069,439 59.55% 8
Democratic John Kerry 712,733 39.69% 0
Reform Ralph Nader 8,856 0.49% 0
Libertarian Michael Badnarik 2,619 0.15% 0
Constitution Michael Peroutka 2,213 0.12% 0
Totals 1,795,860 100.00% 8
Voter turnout (Voting age population) 57.5%

By county

County John F. Kerry George W. Bush Other Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Adair 1,764 23.7% 5,628 75.6% 55 0.7% 3,864 51.89% 7,447
Allen 1,923 26.8% 5,202 72.6% 38 0.5% 3,279 45.78% 7,163
Anderson 3,141 32.7% 6,363 66.3% 87 0.9% 3,222 33.59% 9,591
Ballard 1,759 42.1% 2,389 57.2% 29 0.7% 630 15.08% 4,177
Barren 5,216 32.3% 10,822 67.1% 102 0.6% 5,606 34.73% 16,140
Bath 2,608 53.0% 2,269 46.1% 42 0.9% -339 -6.89% 4,919
Bell 4,210 38.3% 6,722 61.1% 70 0.6% 2,512 22.83% 11,002
Boone 12,391 27.5% 32,329 71.7% 362 0.8% 19,938 44.23% 45,082
Bourbon 3,198 38.9% 4,953 60.3% 66 0.8% 1,755 21.36% 8,217
Boyd 10,132 46.5% 11,501 52.8% 144 0.7% 1,369 6.29% 21,777
Boyle 4,646 37.2% 7,764 62.2% 80 0.6% 3,118 24.96% 12,490
Bracken 1,213 33.6% 2,363 65.5% 34 0.9% 1,150 31.86% 3,610
Breathitt 3,327 56.0% 2,542 42.8% 75 1.3% -785 -13.21% 5,944
Breckinridge 2,884 33.8% 5,580 65.5% 56 0.7% 2,696 31.64% 8,520
Bullitt 9,043 31.6% 19,433 67.9% 151 0.5% 10,390 36.29% 28,627
Butler 1,436 25.7% 4,109 73.7% 33 0.6% 2,673 47.92% 5,578
Caldwell 2,245 35.4% 4,066 64.0% 38 0.6% 1,821 28.68% 6,349
Calloway 5,728 37.8% 9,293 61.4% 124 0.8% 3,565 23.54% 15,145
Campbell 14,253 35.5% 25,540 63.6% 382 1.0% 11,287 28.09% 40,175
Carlisle 1,102 38.7% 1,734 60.9% 9 0.3% 632 22.21% 2,845
Carroll 1,688 43.3% 2,175 55.8% 34 0.9% 487 12.50% 3,897
Carter 5,577 50.2% 5,422 48.8% 118 1.1% -155 -1.39% 11,117
Casey 1,174 18.6% 5,109 80.8% 38 0.6% 3.935 62.25% 6,321
Christian 6,970 33.2% 13,935 66.3% 110 0.5% 6,965 33.14% 21,015
Clark 5,661 37.0% 9,540 62.3% 116 0.8% 3,879 25.32% 15,317
Clay 1,901 24.7% 5,726 74.5% 60 0.8% 3,825 49.76% 7,687
Clinton 952 21.9% 3,369 77.4% 31 0.7% 2,417 55.54% 4,352
Crittenden 1,438 34.3% 2,726 65.1% 26 0.6% 1,288 30.74% 4,190
Cumberland 848 26.2% 2,356 72.7% 35 1.1% 1,508 46.56% 3,239
Daviess 15,788 38.1% 25,372 61.2% 323 0.8% 9,584 23.10% 41,483
Edmonson 1,856 33.9% 3,595 65.6% 30 0.5% 1,739 31.73% 5,481
Elliott 2,064 69.8% 871 29.5% 22 0.7% -1,193 -40.34% 2,957
Estill 1,907 34.2% 3,633 65.2% 35 0.6% 1,726 30.96% 5,575
Fayette 57,994 46.2% 66,406 52.9% 1,176 0.9% 8,412 6.70% 125,576
Fleming 2,406 38.8% 3,749 60.4% 48 0.8% 1,343 21.65% 6,203
Floyd 11,132 62.2% 6,612 37.0% 141 0.8% -4,520 -25.27% 17,885
Franklin 11,620 48.1% 12,281 50.9% 232 1.0% 661 2.74% 24,133
Fulton 1,340 46.4% 1,527 52.8% 23 0.8% 187 6.47% 2,890
Gallatin 1,188 38.7% 1,869 60.8% 16 0.5% 681 22.16% 3,073
Garrard 1,841 27.7% 4,784 71.9% 33 0.5% 2,943 44.20% 6,658
Grant 2,818 31.9% 5,951 67.4% 55 0.6% 3,133 35.51% 8,824
Graves 6,206 38.2% 9,903 61.0% 120 0.7% 3,697 22.78% 16,229
Grayson 2,905 28.6% 7,170 70.7% 68 0.7% 4,265 42.05% 10,143
Green 1,312 25.2% 3,866 74.3% 28 0.5% 2,554 49.06% 5,206
Greenup 7,630 46.4% 8,696 52.9% 109 0.7% 1,066 6.49% 16,435
Hancock 1,709 42.4% 2,286 56.7% 34 0.8% 577 14.32% 4,029
Hardin 11,507 31.6% 24,627 67.6% 307 0.8% 13,120 36.00% 36,441
Harlan 4,332 39.1% 6,659 60.2% 79 0.7% 2,327 21.02% 11,070
Harrison 2,807 36.3% 4,855 62.8% 69 0.9% 2,048 26.49% 7,731
Hart 2,470 36.4% 4,269 62.9% 45 0.7% 1,799 26.52% 6,784
Henderson 8,101 43.3% 10,467 56.0% 133 0.7% 2,366 12.65% 18,701
Henry 2,366 36.4% 4,094 63.0% 39 0.6% 1,728 26.59% 6,499
Hickman 926 39.5% 1,395 59.6% 21 0.9% 469 20.03% 2,342
Hopkins 6,420 34.1% 12,314 65.4% 109 0.6% 5,894 31.28% 18,843
Jackson 769 14.9% 4,369 84.4% 40 0.8% 3,600 69.52% 5,178
Jefferson 170,158 50.4% 164,566 48.8% 2,626 0.8% -5,592 -1.66% 337,350
Jessamine 5,476 29.5% 12,972 69.8% 132 0.7% 7,496 40.34% 18,580
Johnson 3,288 35.3% 5,940 63.8% 76 0.8% 2,652 28.50% 9,304
Kenton 22,834 34.0% 43,664 65.1% 625 0.9% 20,830 31.03% 67,123
Knott 4,685 63.4% 2,648 35.8% 61 0.8% 2,037 -27.55% 7,394
Knox 3,822 31.8% 8,108 67.4% 98 0.8% 4,286 35.63% 12,028
LaRue 1,823 30.5% 4,111 68.9% 34 0.6% 2,288 38.34% 5,968
Laurel 5,297 23.8% 16,819 75.5% 148 0.7% 11,522 51.75% 22,264
Lawrence 2,705 41.5% 3,755 57.7% 53 0.8% 1,050 16.12% 6,513
Lee 878 30.1% 2,018 69.1% 24 0.8% 1,140 39.04% 2,920
Leslie 1,266 25.5% 3,661 73.8% 37 0.7% 2,395 48.25% 4,964
Letcher 4,192 46.2% 4,801 53.0% 72 0.8% 609 6.72% 9,065
Lewis 1,667 30.4% 3,778 68.9% 39 0.7% 2,111 38.49% 5,484
Lincoln 2,796 31.5% 5,996 67.7% 71 0.8% 3,200 36.11% 8,863
Livingston 2,007 42.6% 2,675 56.8% 24 0.5% 668 14.19% 4,706
Logan 3,768 35.4% 6,815 64.0% 61 0.6% 3,047 28.63% 10,644
Lyon 1,769 45.1% 2,132 54.3% 24 0.6% 363 9.25% 3,925
McCracken 11,361 38.1% 18,218 61.1% 218 0.7% 6,857 23.01% 29,797
McCreary 1,530 26.9% 4,121 72.4% 42 0.7% 2,591 45.51% 5,693
McLean 1,823 41.1% 2,584 58.3% 28 0.6% 761 17.16% 4,435
Madison 11,525 37.5% 18,922 61.6% 260 0.8% 7,397 24.09% 30,707
Magoffin 2,843 49.7% 2,836 49.6% 39 0.7% -7 -0.12% 5,718
Marion 3,399 46.2% 3,905 53.1% 50 0.7% 506 6.88% 7,354
Marshall 6,383 41.1% 9,049 58.3% 89 0.6% 2,666 17.18% 15,521
Martin 1,504 33.1% 2,996 66.0% 39 0.9% 1,492 32.87% 4,539
Mason 2,644 37.3% 4,381 61.9% 54 0.8% 1,737 24.54% 7,079
Meade 3,724 34.0% 7,152 65.3% 75 0.7% 3,428 31.30% 10,951
Menifee 1,284 50.8% 1,215 48.1% 29 1.1% -69 -2.73% 2,528
Mercer 3,224 32.1% 6,745 67.3% 59 0.6% 3,521 35.11% 10,028
Metcalfe 1,472 35.4% 2,645 63.6% 40 1.0% 1,173 28.22% 4,157
Monroe 1,158 19.8% 4,657 79.7% 28 0.5% 3,499 59.88% 5,843
Montgomery 4,506 44.0% 5,647 55.2% 77 0.8% 1,141 11.15% 10,230
Morgan 2,532 48.0% 2,682 50.9% 58 1.1% 150 2.85% 5,272
Muhlenberg 6,636 49.2% 6,749 50.1% 94 0.7% 113 0.84% 13,479
Nelson 6,524 38.7% 10,161 60.3% 159 0.9% 3,637 21.59% 16,844
Nicholas 1,332 43.5% 1,700 55.6% 27 0.9% 368 12.03% 3,059
Ohio 3,627 36.2% 6,311 62.9% 90 0.9% 2,684 26.77% 10,028
Oldham 8,080 29.8% 18,801 69.3% 251 0.9% 10,721 39.51% 27,132
Owen 1,615 34.1% 3,084 65.0% 42 0.9% 1,469 30.99% 4,741
Owsley 430 21.5% 1,558 77.9% 11 0.6% 1,128 56.43% 1,999
Pendleton 1,940 32.2% 4,045 67.1% 40 0.7% 2,105 34.94% 6,025
Perry 5,400 46.3% 6,187 53.1% 68 0.6% 787 6.75% 11,655
Pike 14,002 52.3% 12,611 47.1% 157 0.6% -1,391 -5.20% 26,770
Powell 2,249 45.3% 2,687 54.2% 24 0.5% 438 8.83% 4,960
Pulaski 5,829 22.8% 19,535 76.6% 152 0.6% 13,706 53.72% 25,516
Robertson 413 37.9% 670 61.5% 7 0.6% 257 23.58% 1,090
Rockcastle 1,320 21.4% 4,804 77.9% 42 0.7% 3,484 56.50% 6,166
Rowan 4,556 52.3% 4,063 46.7% 87 1.0% -493 -5.66% 8,706
Russell 1,772 22.7% 6,009 76.8% 40 0.5% 4,237 54.17% 7,821
Scott 6,325 37.1% 10,600 62.2% 125 0.7% 4,275 25.07% 17,050
Shelby 5,277 32.3% 10,909 66.9% 127 0.8% 5,632 34.52% 16,313
Simpson 2,730 38.8% 4,273 60.7% 40 0.6% 1,543 21.91% 7,043
Spencer 1,970 28.9% 4,816 70.6% 36 0.5% 2,846 41.72% 6,822
Taylor 2,979 28.9% 7,247 70.4% 69 0.7% 4,268 41.46% 10,295
Todd 1,491 31.4% 3,242 68.2% 21 0.4% 1,751 36.83% 4,754
Trigg 2,046 33.5% 4,023 65.8% 42 0.7% 1,977 32.35% 6,111
Trimble 1,428 37.7% 2,332 61.5% 30 0.8% 904 23.85% 3,790
Union 2,398 40.1% 3,534 59.1% 45 0.8% 1,136 19.01% 5,977
Warren 14,326 36.1% 25,100 63.2% 285 0.7% 10,774 27.13% 39,711
Washington 1,724 32.9% 3,479 66.4% 33 0.6% 1,755 33.52% 5,236
Wayne 2,616 34.0% 5,027 65.4% 42 0.5% 2,411 31.37% 7,685
Webster 2,304 41.5% 3,207 57.8% 36 0.6% 903 16.28% 5,547
Whitley 3,985 29.2% 9,559 70.1% 85 0.6% 5,574 40.90% 13,629
Wolfe 1,744 55.3% 1,385 43.9% 26 0.8% -359 -11.38% 3,155
Woodford 4,480 38.9% 6,937 60.3% 85 0.7% 2,457 21.36% 11,502
Total 712,733 39.69% 1,069,439 59.55% 13,688 0.76% 356,706 19.86% 1,795,860

By congressional district

Bush won 5 of 6 congressional districts, both candidates won a district held by the other party.

District Bush Kerry Representative
1st 63% 36% Ed Whitfield
2nd 65% 34% Ron Lewis
3rd 49% 51% Anne Northup
4th 63% 36% Geoff Davis
5th 61% 39% Hal Rogers
6th 58% 41% Ben Chandler

Electors

Main article: List of 2004 United States presidential electors

Technically the voters of Kentucky cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Kentucky is allocated 8 electors because it has 6 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 8 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 8 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 8 were pledged to Bush/Cheney:

  1. Rachel N. McCubbin
  2. Keith A. Hall
  3. Carolyn Cole
  4. Martha G. Prewitt
  5. Donald E. Girdler
  6. Constance M. Gray
  7. Frank Schwendeman
  8. Carla T. Bartleman

References

  1. ^ "Voter turnout report for the 11/02/04 General Election" (PDF). Commonwealth of Kentucky - State Board of Elections.
  2. ^ http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW[permanent dead link]
  3. ^ "2004 Presidential Election Polls". Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections.
  4. ^ "George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President".
  5. ^ "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democrat Party, President".
  6. ^ "America votes 2004: Campaign ad buys". CNN. Archived from the original on 2021-04-22. Retrieved 2022-05-27.
  7. ^ "America votes 2004: Candidate tracker". CNN. Retrieved 2022-05-27.