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United States House of Representatives elections, 2008

This article discusses contested races. For a complete list of all seats, see United States House of Representatives elections, 2008 - complete list

The 2008 U.S. House of Representatives elections will be held on November 4, 2008, to elect members to the United States House of Representatives to serve in the 111th United States Congress from January 3, 2009 until January 3, 2011. All 435 seats are up for election. The Democrats, who regained a majority in the 2006 elections hope to retain or expand their control of Congress. The Republicans hope to regain the majority it lost in the 2006 elections or at least add to their numbers. Turnout likely will be increased due to the 2008 presidential election. The presidential election, 2008 Senate elections, and 2008 state gubernatorial elections, as well as many other state and local elections, will occur on the same date.

Composition going into the elections

The House currently has 235 Democrats, 199 Republicans and one vacancy.

Special elections in 2008 for the 110th Congress

See also: United States House of Representatives special elections, 2007

Completed special elections

Retiring Incumbents

Thirty-two incumbents are voluntarily retiring from the House.[3]

Democratic incumbents

  1. Alabama's 5th congressional district: Bud Cramer: "[T]o spend more time with my family and begin another chapter in my life"[4]
  2. Colorado's 2nd congressional district: Mark Udall: To run for U.S. Senate
  3. Maine's 1st congressional district: Tom Allen: To run for U.S. Senate
  4. New Mexico's 3rd congressional district: Tom Udall: To run for U.S. Senate
  5. New York's 21st congressional district: Michael McNulty: "[I]t's not what I want to do for the rest of my life."[5]
  6. Oregon's 5th congressional district: Darlene Hooley: Because of the "cumulative effect of arduous travel, the relentless demands of fund-raising and 32 years of public service"[6]

Republican incumbents

  1. Alabama's 2nd congressional district: Terry Everett: Because of age and health[7]
  2. Arizona's 1st congressional district: Rick Renzi: To fight federal criminal charges involving a land-swap deal[8]
  3. California's 4th congressional district: John Doolittle: To fight an FBI corruption investigation[9]
  4. California's 52nd congressional district: Duncan Hunter: To run for President
  5. Colorado's 6th congressional district: Tom Tancredo: To run for President
  6. Florida's 15th congressional district: Dave Weldon: To return to his medical practice[10]
  7. Illinois's 11th congressional district: Jerry Weller: To spend more time with his family,[11] amid questions about his Nicaraguan land dealings, his wife's investments, and his relationship to an indicted defense contractor[12]
  8. Illinois's 18th congressional district: Ray LaHood
  9. Kentucky's 2nd congressional district: Ron Lewis
  10. Louisiana's 4th congressional district: Jim McCrery
  11. Minnesota's 3rd congressional district: Jim Ramstad
  12. Mississippi's 3rd congressional district: Chip Pickering
  13. Missouri's 9th congressional district: Kenny Hulshof: To run for Governor
  14. New Jersey's 3rd congressional district: Jim Saxton: Because of age and health[13]
  15. New Jersey's 7th congressional district: Mike Ferguson: To spend more time with his family[14]
  16. New Mexico's 1st congressional district: Heather Wilson: To run for U.S. Senate
  17. New Mexico's 2nd congressional district: Steve Pearce: To run for U.S. Senate
  18. New York's 13th congressional district: Vito Fossella: Amid scandal following a drunk driving arrest which led to revelations of infidelity and a secret family he maintained in Virginia
  19. New York's 25th congressional district: Jim Walsh
  20. New York's 26th congressional district: Tom Reynolds
  21. Ohio's 7th congressional district: Dave Hobson
  22. Ohio's 15th congressional district: Deborah Pryce
  23. Ohio's 16th congressional district: Ralph Regula
  24. Pennsylvania's 5th congressional district: John Peterson: To spend more time with his family[15][16]
  25. Virginia's 11th congressional district: Tom Davis: "It's time for me to take a sabbatical"[17]
  26. Wyoming's At-large congressional district: Barbara Cubin[18]

Vacant seat

One seat is vacant because of the death of the incumbent:

  1. Ohio's 11th congressional district: Incumbent Stephanie Tubbs Jones (D) died of an aneurysm on August 20, 2008. On November 18, the district will hold a special election to fill Jones's seat for the remainder of the 110th Congress, until January 2009. The election will be held after the November 4 general election, and the heavily-favored candidate in the special election is Marcia Fudge (D), the favorite in the general election.

Defeated incumbents

Incumbents defeated for renomination

  1. Maryland's 1st congressional district: Wayne Gilchrest (R)
  2. Maryland's 4th congressional district: Albert Wynn (D) -subsequently resigned May 31, 2008
  3. Utah's 3rd congressional district: Chris Cannon (R)
  4. Tennessee's 1st congressional district: David Davis (R)

Predictions

Shortly after the November 2006 election, Scott Elliott of ElectionProjection.com said that the Democratic majority would be tough to beat - at most the GOP could take back fourteen House seats - two short of a majority.[19]

On April 8, 2008, analyst Stuart Rothenberg of The Rothenberg Political Report (who bills himself as non-partisan) stated that the fight for the House would be a "one-sided battle, with Democrats having most of the targets". He points to a list of one dozen seats (out of all 435 seats in the House) that are most likely to change hands, of those twelve, ten are open seats, seats which Republicans won by 3% or less in 2006 or otherwise endangered GOP seats.[20]

In May 2007, conservative columnist Robert Novak wrote that he believed there were at least a few House seats that were won by Democrats in 2006 "solely because of GOP corruption," and that such seats would be "the most likely to return to the Republican column in 2008". He also said,

“ a continued sour mood over the Iraq War could produce another massive Republican defeat in 2008 that makes 2006 look tame by comparison. Republicans in Washington generally concede that the continued presence of U.S. troops in Iraq by next November could mean disaster for the party. ”

Novak qualified this by saying that in "previous elections, major House gains by either party have always been followed by losses in the next election".[21]

InTrade.com, the only betting site currently offering odds on control of the House, puts the likelihood of the Democrats retaining control at about 90% as of early October 2008.[22]

There have been three special elections for open Republican seats, IL-14 (formerly held by Dennis Hastert), LA-06 (formerly held by Richard Baker) and MS-01 (formerly held by Roger Wicker). Democrats won all three elections. After the MS-01 loss, Ron Gunzburger wrote, "GOP insiders in DC now privately acknowledge the Democratic victory in this seat likely foreshadows a dismal general election ahead for congressional Republicans."[23]

Race ratings

The following table rates the competitiveness of selected races from around the country according to noted political analysts. Races not included should be considered "safe" for the incumbent's party. (Incumbents not running for re-election have parentheses around their name.)

District Incumbent Cook[24] Rothenberg[25] CQ Politics[26] Crystal Ball[27]
AL-2 (Everett) (R) Tossup Tossup/Tilts R No Clear Favorite Tossup
AL-3 Rogers (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored Safe R
AL-5 (Cramer) (D) Tossup Pure Tossup No Clear Favorite Tossup
AK-AL Young (R) Tossup D Favored Leans D Leans D
AZ-1 (Renzi) (R) Likely D D Favored Leans D Leans D
AZ-3 Shadegg (R) Leans R R Favored Leans R Leans R
AZ-5 Mitchell (D) Likely D D Favored Leans D Leans D
AZ-8 Giffords (D) Likely D D Favored Leans D Leans D
CA-3 Lungren (R) Likely R R Favored R Favored Safe R
CA-4 (Doolittle) (R) Tossup Leans R No Clear Favorite Tossup
CA-11 McNerney (D) Leans D Tossup/Tilts D Leans D Leans D
CA-26 Dreier (R) Solid R Limited Risk R Favored Safe R
CA-46 Rohrabacher (R) Likely R R Favored R Favored Safe R
CA-50 Bilbray (R) Leans R Limited Risk R Favored Leans R
CO-4 Musgrave (R) Tossup Tossup/Tilts D Leans D Leans D
CT-2 Courtney (D) Solid D Limited Risk D Favored Safe D
CT-4 Shays (R) Tossup Pure Tossup No Clear Favorite Leans D
CT-5 Murphy (D) Solid D Limited Risk Leans D Likely D
FL-8 Keller (R) Tossup Tossup/Tilts D Leans D Leans D
FL-13 Buchanan (R) Likely R R Favored Leans R Likely R
FL-15 (Weldon) (R) Solid R Limited Risk R Favored Safe R
FL-16 Mahoney (D) Likely R R Favored Leans R Likely R
FL-18 Ros-Lehtinen (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored Safe R
FL-21 L. Diaz-Balart (R) Tossup Pure Tossup Leans R Leans R
FL-22 Klein (D) Solid D Limited Risk D Favored Safe D
FL-24 Feeney (R) Leans D D Favored Leans D Leans D
FL-25 M. Diaz-Balart (R) Leans R Tossup/Tilts R Leans R Tossup
GA-8 Marshall (D) Leans D Tossup/Tilts D Leans D Leans D
GA-12 Barrow (D) Solid D Limited Risk D Favored Likely D
ID-1 Sali (R) Tossup Tossup/Tilts R Leans R Leans R
IL-6 Roskam (R) Likely R R Favored R Favored Safe R
IL-8 Bean (D) Solid D Limited Risk D Favored Likely D
IL-10 Kirk (R) Tossup Tossup/Tilts R No Clear Favorite Tossup
IL-11 (Weller) (R) Leans D Tossup/Tilts D Leans D Leans D
IL-13 Biggert (R) Solid R Limited Risk R Favored Safe R
IL-14 Foster (D) Likely D Limited Risk D Favored Leans D
IL-18 (LaHood) (R) Solid R Limited Risk R Favored Likely R
IN-3 Souder (R) Leans R Limited Risk Leans R Leans R
IN-8 Ellsworth (D) Solid D Limited Risk Safe D Likely D
IN-9 Hill (D) Likely D Limited Risk D Favored Likely D
IA-4 Latham (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored Safe R
KS-2 Boyda (D) Leans D Tossup/Tilts D No Clear Favorite Tossup
KS-3 Moore (D) Likely D Limited Risk D Favored Likely D
KY-2 (Lewis) (R) Tossup Tossup/Tilts R Leans R Tossup
KY-3 Yarmuth (D) Likely D D Favored Leans D Leans D
LA-1 Scalise (R) Solid R Limited Risk R Favored Safe R
LA-4 (McCrery) (R) Tossup Tossup/Tilts R No Clear Favorite Tossup
LA-6 Cazayoux (D) Tossup Pure Tossup No Clear Favorite Leans D
LA-7 Boustany (R) Solid R Limited Risk R Favored Likely R
ME-1 (Allen) (D) Solid D Limited Risk D Favored Safe D
MD-1 (Gilchrest) (R) Tossup Tossup/Tilts R No Clear Favorite Tossup
MI-7 Walberg (R) Tossup Pure Tossup No Clear Favorite Leans D
MI-9 Knollenberg (R) Tossup Tossup/Tilts D No Clear Favorite Tossup
MN-1 Walz (D) Likely D Limited Risk D Favored Likely D
MN-2 Kline (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored Safe R
MN-3 (Ramstad) (R) Leans D Tossup/Tilts D No Clear Favorite Leans D
MN-6 Bachmann (R) Tossup Leans R No Clear Favorite Tossup
MS-1 Childers (D) Leans D D Favored Leans D Leans D
MO-6 Graves (R) Leans R Leans R Leans R Leans R
MO-9 (Hulshof) (R) Tossup Tossup/Tilts R Leans R Leans R
NE-2 Terry (R) Tossup R Favored Leans R Leans R
NV-2 Heller (R) Leans R Limited Risk Leans R Leans R
NV-3 Porter (R) Tossup Tossup/Tilts D No Clear Favorite Leans D
NH-1 Shea-Porter (D) Tossup Tossup/Tilts D No Clear Favorite Tossup
NH-2 Hodes (D) Solid D Limited Risk D Favored Likely D
NJ-3 (Saxton) (R) Leans D Tossup/Tilts D No Clear Favorite Tossup
NJ-5 Garrett (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored Leans R
NJ-7 (Ferguson) (R) Tossup Pure Tossup No Clear Favorite Tossup
NM-1 (Wilson) (R) Leans D Tossup/Tilts D No Clear Favorite Leans D
NM-2 (Pearce) (R) Tossup Pure Tossup Leans R Leans D
NY-13 (Fossella) (R) Likely D D Favored D Favored Likely D
NY-19 Hall (D) Solid D Limited Risk D Favored Likely D
NY-20 Gillibrand (D) Likely D Limited Risk Leans D Leans D
NY-24 Arcuri (D) Likely D Limited Risk D Favored Likely D
NY-25 (Walsh) (R) Likely D D Favored D Favored Leans D
NY-26 (Reynolds) (R) Tossup Tossup/Tilts R Leans R Tossup
NY-29 Kuhl (R) Tossup Tossup/Tilts D No Clear Favorite Tossup
NC-5 Foxx (R) Likely R Limited Risk Safe R Safe R
NC-8 Hayes (R) Tossup Tossup/Tilts D No Clear Favorite Leans D
NC-10 McHenry (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored Safe R
OH-1 Chabot (R) Tossup Pure Tossup No Clear Favorite Tossup
OH-2 Schmidt (R) Leans R Leans R Leans R Leans R
OH-7 (Hobson) (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored Safe R
OH-14 LaTourette (R) Solid R Limited Risk R Favored Safe R
OH-15 (Pryce) (R) Tossup Pure Tossup No Clear Favorite Tossup
OH-16 (Regula) (R) Leans D D Favored Leans D Leans D
OH-18 Space (D) Likely D Limited Risk D Favored Likely D
OR-5 (Hooley) (D) Likely D Limited Risk D Favored Likely D
PA-3 English (R) Tossup Tossup/Tilts D No Clear Favorite Tossup
PA-4 Altmire (D) Likely D Leans D D Favored Likely D
PA-6 Gerlach (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored Likely R
PA-8 Murphy (D) Solid D Limited Risk D Favored Likely D
PA-10 Carney (D) Leans D Leans D Leans D Leans D
PA-11 Kanjorski (D) Tossup Pure Tossup No Clear Favorite Tossup
PA-12 Murtha (D) Likely D Limited Risk D Favored Safe D
PA-15 Dent (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored Likely R
PA-18 Murphy (R) Solid R Limited Risk R Favored Likely R
SC-1 Brown (R) Leans R R Favored Leans R Likely R
SC-2 Wilson (R) Solid R Limited Risk R Favored Safe R
TX-7 Culberson (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored Leans R
TX-10 McCaul (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored Likely R
TX-22 Lampson (D) Tossup Leans R No Clear Favorite Tossup
TX-23 Rodriguez (D) Likely D Limited Risk Leans D Likely D
VA-2 Drake (R) Tossup Tossup/Tilts R Leans R Leans R
VA-5 Goode (R) Leans R Limited Risk R Favored Likely R
VA-10 Wolf (R) Solid R Limited Risk R Favored Safe R
VA-11 (Davis) (R) Likely D Leans D D Favored Likely D
WA-8 Reichert (R) Tossup Pure Tossup No Clear Favorite Leans R
WV-2 Capito (R) Leans R R Favored Leans R Leans R
WI-8 Kagen (D) Leans D Leans D Leans D Leans D
WY-AL (Cubin) (R) Leans R R Favored No Clear Favorite Tossup

Races by state

Section contents: Alabama — Alaska — Arizona —Arkansas — California — Colorado — Connecticut — Delaware — Florida — Georgia — Hawaii — Idaho — Illinois — Indiana — Iowa — Kansas — Kentucky — Louisiana — Maine — Maryland — Massachusetts — Michigan — Minnesota — Mississippi — Missouri — Montana — Nebraska — Nevada — New Hampshire — New Jersey — New Mexico — New York — North Carolina — North Dakota — Ohio — Oklahoma — Oregon — Pennsylvania — Rhode Island — South Carolina — South Dakota — Tennessee — Texas — Utah — Vermont — Virginia — Washington — West Virginia — Wisconsin — Wyoming — Non-voting members

Alabama

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Alabama, 2008
  • Alabama's 2nd congressional district: Incumbent Terry Everett (R), 71, is retiring. This district covers southeastern Alabama, including Dothan and Montgomery. The Republican nominee, State Rep. Jay Love, defeated state Senator Harri Anne Smith in a competitive primary. The Democratic nominee is Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright. The district leans Republican — George W. Bush won 67% in 2004 here (CPVI=R+13). However, Bright has the advantage of representing the district's largest population center, as well as gaining the backing of Smith [28].
  • Alabama's 3rd congressional district: Despite a close first election, three term incumbent Republican Mike D. Rogers has had easy reelection races in 2004 and 2006. However, Democrats hope that an increased African-American voter turnout from Barack Obama's presidential campaign will aid Democratic nominee Joshua Segall. Segall has been a competitive fundraiser.[29] Bush won this district, which includes parts of Montgomery, as well as Auburn and Anniston, with 58% in 2004, making Rogers the favorite here.
  • Alabama's 5th congressional district: In a surprise, incumbent Bud Cramer (D) will retire after 18 years.[30] This district, which encompasses all of Alabama's northern border including Huntsville, usually votes Republican in national elections, giving Republicans a chance of a pick-up. The Republican nominee is insurance agent and 1994 and 1996 nominee Wayne Parker. The Democratic nominee is state Senator Parker Griffith. Cramer endorsed Griffith on April 8.[31]

Alaska

Main article: United States House of Representatives election in Alaska, 2008
  • Alaska's At-large congressional district: Incumbent Don Young (R), who is often referred to as "Alaska's third Senator" since the district he represents the entire state, is running for re-election. Despite representing Alaska in the House since 1973, Young is now vulnerable due to a corruption investigation involving the misuse of campaign funds. Young's age (75), alleged corruption, and stance on federal pork gave him a tough Republican primary and now a competitive general election. Young defeated lieutenant governor Sean Parnell in the Republican primary by 304 votes.[32] Among Democrats, former state Representative Ethan Berkowitz defeated 2006 Democratic Party congressional nominee Diane Benson (who lost to Young in 2006 by 56% to 40%) in the Democratic primary, 55% to 37%. Bush won 61% of the vote here in 2004 (CPVI=R+14). A December 11, 2007 poll had Young trailing Berkowitz 49% to 42%.[33]

Arizona

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona, 2008
  • Arizona's 1st congressional district: In August 2007, incumbent Rick Renzi (R) announced he would not seek re-election,[34] four months after the FBI raided Renzi's family business as part of a federal investigation. Renzi received only 52% of the vote against his Democratic opponent – Sedona civil rights attorney Ellen Simon – in 2006; George W. Bush won 54% of the vote in this northern Arizona State district in 2004 (CPVI=R+2). State Representative Ann Kirkpatrick is the Democratic nominee. Public affairs consultant Sydney Ann Hay, who ran unsuccessfully in 2002, is the Republican nominee. Civil Engineer Brent Maupin is the Independent candidate.
  • Arizona's 3rd congressional district: Outspoken conservative John Shadegg (R) had announced that he would not be a candidate for re-election, however, ten days later, announced that he would seek re-election. The district, which includes part of Phoenix, gave 58% of the vote to Bush in 2004. Democratic tax attorney Bob Lord,[35] The Democratic nominee, out raised Shadegg in the first quarter of 2007 and has continued to raise large amounts, though he now trails Shadegg in funds.[36] Libertarian Attorney Michael Shoen has announced his candidacy.
  • Arizona's 5th congressional district: Freshman Harry Mitchell (D) unseated conservative J.D. Hayworth (R) by 50% to 47% in this Republican-leaning district (CPVI=R+4) in the northeastern Phoenix suburbs that gave George W. Bush 54% of the vote in 2004. The largely Republican nature of this district make a tough 2008 race likely, though Mitchell, who has a government complex in Tempe named after him, has won a lot of tough elections in the past. He will be seriously opposed in 2008. Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert is the Republican nominee. Businessman Warren Severin is the Libertarian candidate.
  • Arizona's 8th congressional district: Gabrielle Giffords (D) defeated conservative Randy Graf (R) by a 54% to 42% margin in 2006. Giffords could have a difficult re-election bid now that State Senate President Tim Bee is the Republican nominee. Moderate former Rep. Jim Kolbe originally supported Bee's candidacy,[37] but in July ceased to do so.[38]The district, which includes part of Tucsonas well as other cities in southern Arizona, gave 53% of its votes to Bush in 2004 (CPVI=R+1). Afghanistan veteran Derek Tidball is also running as an Independent.[39]

Arkansas

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Arkansas, 2008

None of Arkansas' four congressmen (Three democrats and one Republican) face a major party challenge.

California

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in California, 2008
  • California's 4th congressional district: On January 10, 2008, nine-term incumbent John Doolittle (R) announced he would retire when his term expires in 2009, to the relief of his fellow Republicans. He has been associated with the corruption scandals of Jack Abramoff and defense contractor Brent Wilkes. In 2006, Doolittle received only 49% of the vote compared to 46% for his opponent, retired Lt. Colonel and war veteran Charlie Brown (D). Brown is again the Democratic nominee. The FBI raided Doolitte's home in April 2007 in search of incriminating evidence,[40] and speculation abounds that Doolittle will be indicted. This district, which includes some of Sacramento's suburbs, leans Republican - George W. Bush won 61% here in 2004 (CPVI=R+11) - and normally could be expected to be a safe seat for the GOP. However, many pundits believed Doolittle faced almost certain defeat if he ran again. The Republican nominee is State Senator Tom McClintock, a conservative who was ran near-successful races for state Controller in 1994 and 2002.
  • California's 8th congressional district: This seat, held by house Speaker Nancy Pelosi, is in urban San Francisco, and considered relatively safe for the Democrats in any election year. The Republican nominee is Businesswoman and community leader Dana Walsh. However, prominent anti-war activist and "Peace Mom" Cindy Sheehan has declared as a "People before Politics" Independent candidate and will be challenging Pelosi this fall. It is unclear what impact this will have on the race, but many believe this will be an interesting race to watch. Pelosi is very popular and most pundits believe Sheehan has little to no chance of winning.
  • California's 26th congressional district: Republican incumbent David Dreier has represented this Southern California district since 1981. Democrats have nominated magazine distributer Russ Warner to challenge Dreier, and Warner's strong fundraising shows that he may be a formidable challenger. The district, located in the San Gabriel Valley, leans Republican: Bush won 55% here in 2004.[42]
  • California's 50th congressional district: Republican incumbent Brian Bilbray has represented this district since winning a 2006 special election, and previously represented a similar district from 1995- 2001, losing to current congresswoman Susan Davis in 2000. In none of Bilbray's races has he won more than 53% of the vote, suggesting he may be vulnerable to a strong challenger. This year, Bilbray is opposed by Democrat Nick Leibham, who has proven to be a good fundraiser [43]. The district, based in San Diego and its suburbs, leans Republican: Bush won 55% here in 2004.

Colorado

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Colorado, 2008
  • Colorado's 6th congressional district: Republican incumbent Tom Tancredo (R) announced his intention to retire in order to run what was an unsuccessful campaign for president. The district includes suburbs of Denver. However, Tancredo's seat is considered to be the most Republican-dominated district of the Denver-area seats (CPVI=R+10) (and also one of the wealthiest in the nation). Tancredo was the second highest vote getter for a Republican congressional candidate statewide (59%-40%) in 2006, just behind Doug Lamborn in the 5th district. The district includes Columbine High School, which was devastated in a tragic 1999 school massacre, although Democratic attempts to target him on his outspoken views on gun rights in the 2000 election came up short (he prevailed 53% to 44%). Colorado Secretary of State Mike Coffman (R) is the Republican nominee. On the Democratic side, former Appleton, Wisconsin City Councilor Hank Eng is the Democratic nominee.

Connecticut

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Connecticut, 2008
  • Connecticut's 2nd congressional district: In the closest U.S. House race of 2006, Joe Courtney (D) unseated three-term incumbent Rob Simmons by 82 votes. Courtney's chance at re-election increased when Simmons decided against a rematch. Republican former Groton sub base commander Sean Sullivan is the Republican nominee. However, John Kerry won 55% here in 2004 (CPVI=D+8), so Courtney may be hard to unseat, especially in a presidential year. The district encompasses eastern Connecticut and includes New London and Norwich. Former State Department Of Environmental Protection scientist Scott Deshefy is running as a Green Party candidate,[47][48] Todd Vachon as a Socialist Party candidate,[49] and Dan Reale as a Libertarian.[50]
  • Connecticut's 5th congressional district: Freshman Chris Murphy (D) could be vulnerable this year, after unseating 24-year Republican incumbent Nancy Johnson with 56% of the vote in 2006. Republican state Senator David Cappiello is his parties' nominee.[52] The district, which includes much of western Connecticut, almost eavenly split its vote in 2004 between Bush and Kerry (Kerry won with a little more than 1000 votes, or 49%) National Republicans begun running radio ads in the summer of 2007 claiming Murphy has adopted special interest fundraising politics he had claimed to oppose. In addition, Cappiello has accused Murphy of missing important votes.[53] Canton, Attorney Harold Burbank is running as a Green Party candidate.[54][55]

Delaware

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Delaware, 2008

Delaware's sole Congressman, Republican Michael Castle, is expected to win reelection over minor Democratic opposition.

Florida

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Florida, 2008
  • Florida's 13th congressional district: Freshman Vern Buchanan (R) was certified as having won his first term by a 369-vote margin over banker Christine Jennings, but Jennings challenged the election in court. Although Buchanan was seated by the House, the House has made no final decision on the matter. Regardless, this is expected to be a competitive race in 2008, though Buchanan is far ahead of Jennings in fundraising and is favored to win by political pundits. In mid-July, Jennings announced she would run again in 2008.[57] Further complicating matters for Jennings, former Democratic Congressional candidate Jan Schneider has filed to run as an Independent.[58] The district, which includes Sarasota gave George W. Bush 56% of vote in 2004 (CPVI=R+4).
  • Florida's 15th congressional district: Seven-term incumbent Dave Weldon had easily won re-election contests for a decade. Weldon is retiring in 2008. This Central Florida district includes Melbourne. State Senator Bill Posey is the Republican nominee and will most likely be favored to win. The Democratic nominee is physician Steve Blythe. Attorney and Ron Paul activist Frank Zilaitis is also running as an independent. Bush won 57% of the vote here in 2004 (CPVI=R+4).
  • Florida's 16th congressional district: This is normally a Republican-leaning district, so consensus is that Tim Mahoney's 50% to 48% win in 2006 can be attributed to the Mark Foley scandal: the Republican nominee Joe Negron's campaign was harmed by the fact that Foley's name remained on the ballot even though he was not a candidate. Mahoney's reelection bid has been damaged by revelations that he has had at least two affairs, and is being investigated by the FBI for allegedly hiring one of his mistresses to keep her from discussing the affair [59]. Attorney and Army veteran Tom Rooney defeated state Representative Gayle Harrell and Palm Beach Gardens City Councilman Hal Valeche for the Republican nomination. George W. Bush won this Central Florida district, with 54% in 2004 (CPVI=R+2).
  • Florida's 18th congressional district: Incumbent Ileana Ros-Lehtinen could face a difficult race as her district has been trending Democratic. The district contains many Miami suburbs and the entire Florida Keys. Founder and CEO of LanguageSpeak and Chair of the Women's Enterprise National Council's Leadership Forum Annette Taddeo[60] has announced she will run as a Democrat and has been raising significant sums of money. The national DCCC has been investing money in this race and it has been added to the Red to Blue program. Bush won 54% here in 2004.
  • Florida's 24th congressional district: Tom Feeney (R) could have a challenging race in 2008. Feeney's district includes the Orlando suburbs as well as the Space Coast of Florida. Feeney was re-elected by 58% to 42%, less than expected especially considering that Feeney reportedly drew the district for himself while serving as speaker of the state house. Democrats have recruited former State Rep. Suzanne Kosmas to challenge Feeney in 2008.[63] Feeney has been criticized for his close ties to disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff.[64] George W. Bush won 55% here in 2004 (CPVI=R+3).

Georgia

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Georgia, 2008
  • Georgia's 8th congressional district: Jim Marshall (D) survived a challenge from former Republican congressman Mac Collins in 2006 by 1,752 votes and will face a tough re-election bid in 2008 against retired Air Force Major General Rick Goddard, the Republican nominee.[66] Goddard's background may have great appeal in a district with a large number of veterans, though Marshall has his own military background and is has well-established credibility on military issues. The present district, which includes Warner Robins and Macon, was implemented starting with the 2006 election and would have given George W. Bush 61% of the vote in 2004 (CPVI=R+8).
  • Georgia's 12th congressional district: John Barrow (D) may face a tough challenge from Republicans in 2008 after an 864-vote win over former Rep. Max Burns (R) in their 2006 rematch. Barrow had defeated then-incumbent Burns in 2004 with 52% of the vote, but in 2007 Burns declined to run again. The present district which includes Augusta and Savanna, was implemented starting with the 2006 election and would have given John Kerry 51% in 2004 (CPVI=D+2). Barrow won against State Senator Regina Thomas in the Democratic primary. On the Republican side, radio announcer and former congressional aide John Stone won against mechanical engineer and former presidential candidate Ray McKinney and Ben Crystal.

Hawaii

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Hawaii, 2008

Both of Hawaii's Congressmen (both Democrats), are expected to win reelection over minor Republican opposition.

Idaho

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Idaho, 2008
  • Idaho's 1st congressional district: Conservative Republican Bill Sali won this open seat race with 49.9 percent of the vote in 2006, a mediocre showing in this heavily Republican district that gave Bush 68 percent in 2004 (CPVI=R+19). Also, as a member of the Idaho Legislature Sali caused considerable controversy by repeatedly citing a link between breast cancer and abortion without being able to provide evidence. Although Sali was elected the GOP freshman leader in the House, his term in Washington thus far has been relatively quiet. Sali defeated Iraq War veteran Matt Salisbury in the March 27 primary.[67]. Walt Minnick, an army veteran, Boise businessman, and the Democratic Idaho U.S. Senate nominee in 1996 is the Democratic nominee. The district consists of the western half of Idaho and includes part of the rapidly growing Boise area (where Democrats picked up five seats in the Idaho Legislature in 2006). Sali received negative press when he and members of his staff heckled Minnick during an interview [68].

Illinois

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Illinois, 2008
  • Illinois's 8th congressional district: Melissa Bean (D) gained national attention by toppling longtime incumbent Phil Crane in 2004. However, the 8th, consisting of some of Chicago' northern suburbs including Schaumburg, leans Republican: Bush won 56% here. Bean will face at least two challengers, Republican businessman, and former professional hockey player Steve Greenberg and Green Party candidate Iain Abernathy in the general election.[69]
  • Illinois's 11th congressional district: Jerry Weller will be retiring at the end of his seventh term.[73] The district, which includes Chicago's sourthern suburbs as well as Bloomington in central Illinois, narrowly went for George W. Bush in 2004 with 53% to 47% for John Kerry (CPVI=R+1). The Republican nominee was New Lenox Mayor Tim Baldermann, but he announced in February that he was dropping out of the race.[74] Local businessman Martin Ozinga was chosen to replace Baldermann as the Republican candidate.[75] State Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson is the Democratic nominee. Jason Wallace, a veteran of the Iraq War and chair of the IBHE-SAC,[76] is running as a Green Party candidate.
  • Illinois's 13th congressional district: Until 2006, Republican incumbent Judy Biggert consistently won reelection with more than 60% of the vote. But that year, she was held to 58% against an underfunded opponent. Democratic businessman Scott Harper has out raised Biggert's last opponent and may prove to be a formidable challenger. The district includes some conservative subburbs of Chicago such as Naperville and Bolingbrook [77].
See also: Illinois's 14th congressional district special election, 2008

Indiana

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Indiana, 2008
  • Indiana's 3rd congressional district: Seventh term Republican Mark Souder was reelected by only 54% in 2006, a relatively weak result in a district that Bush won with 68% in 2004. This year, Souder's Democratic opponent is lawyer Michael Montagano, who's candidacy is receiving help from national Democrats. [80] Due to the Republican leaning nature of this district, centered around Fort Wayne, Souder is favored, but not safe for reelection.
  • Indiana's 8th congressional district: In 2006, freshman Brad Ellsworth (D) unseated John Hostettler (R) by 61% to 39%, surprising even his fellow Democrats by the margin. He will be a formidable candidate for re-election, but no incumbent can rest easy in this district, known as "The Bloody 8th" for its history of rejecting incumbents and hotly contested races. Greg Goode, a government affairs official at Indiana State, is the Republican nominee[81]. The district includes Evansville in the southern part of the state, as well as Terra Haute in the western part. Bush won 61% in this southern Indiana district, in 2004 (CPVI=R+9).
  • Indiana's 9th congressional district: Baron Hill (D) defeated Republican incumbent Mike Sodrel 50% to 46% in 2006 to win back this seat. Sodrel is running again [82]: Hill and Sodrel have faced off in three consecutive elections, Hill winning the first and third and Sodrel the second on a recount, so the outcome in 2008 is anything but certain. The district, which includes Jeffersonville and Bloomington, leans Republican: Bush won 59% here in 2004. Eric Schansberg the 2006 Libertarian candidate has announced he is again seeking his party's nomination.[83]

Iowa

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Iowa, 2008
  • Iowa's 4th congressional district: Republican Tom Latham has been easily reelected, never winning with less than 55%.[84]The central Iowa district, which includes Ames, is almost evenly divided between the two parties: Bush won 51% here in 2004. This and Democratic nominee Becky Greenwald's fundraising skills have raised Democratic hopes that they can defeat Latham [85].

Kansas

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Kansas, 2008

Kentucky

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Kentucky, 2008
  • Kentucky's 2nd congressional district: Incumbent Ron Lewis withdrew his re-election bid hours before the filing deadline, to the surprise of many in his party. It was believed that he intended to be succeeded by his Chief of Staff, Daniel London. However, state Senator Brett Guthrie learned of Lewis's retirement just before the deadline, and filed himself. After Guthrie won some key endorsements, London withdrew from the race.[86] leaving Guthrie unopposed for the Republican nomination. State Senator David Boswell is the Democratic nominee.[87] The district, which includes Owensboro and Bowling Green, is Republican leaning: Bush won 65% here in 2004.

Louisiana

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Louisiana, 2008
  • Louisiana's 1st congressional district: Incumbent Republican Steve Scalise won a May special election to fill this seat after the previous representitive, Bobby Jindal, was elected governor. The district, which takes up New Orleans suburbs such as Metairie and the communities along Lake Pontchartrain's north shore, strongly leans Republican: Bush won 71% here in 2004. However, the Democratic nominee, businessman Jim Harlan, may have a chance to win due to his ability to put significant amounts of his own money into the race [91].
  • Louisiana's 2nd congressional district: Incumbent Democrat Bill Jefferson has been indicted on 16 counts of corruption, complicating his re-election bid. In the Democratic primary, he placed first in a field of seven candidates finishing with 25% of the vote. Because no candidate received at least 50% of the vote, he will face the second place finisher, former TV anchor Helena Moreno,[92], who won 20% of the vote.[93] The Republican nominee is Anh "Joseph" Cao.[94] The district includes nearly all of New Orleans and some of its suburbs, and is heavily Democratic: John Kerry won 75% of the vote here in 2004. Because of Hurricane Gustav's effects, the state has ruled that the primary runoff will be held on November 4 in place of the general election, with the general election moving to December 6. [95]
  • Louisiana's 4th congressional district: Incumbent Jim McCrery is retriring. The district contains northwestern Louisiana, including the cities of Shreveport, DeRidder, and Natchitoches. The district usually, but not reliably, votes Republican, as Bill Clinton won it comfortably in 1996. Both party's will hold runoff's, as no candidate received at least 50% of the vote in his primary. The Republican candidates will be former Webster Perish coroner, businessman, and physician John Fleming, and trucking company executive Chris Gorman. On the Democratic side, Caddo Parish District Attorney Paul Carmouche will be favored over Attorney Willie Banks Jr.[96] Due to the effects of Hurricane Gustav, the state has ruled that the primary runoff will be held on November 4 in place of the general election, with the general election moving to December 6. [95]
  • Louisiana's 6th congressional district: Democrat Don Cazayoux defeated Republican Woody Jenkins 49%–46% in a special election in order to succeed Republican Richard Baker. Given Cazayoux's narrow margin of victory and the Republican-leaning nature of this Baton Rouge based district (Bush won 59% here in 2004), it is expected that Cazayoux will be a GOP target as he runs for his first full term. The only announced Republican candidate is State Senator Bill Cassidy. Democratic state representative Michael Jackson announced that he would run as an independent after Cazayoux defeated him in the primary.[97]
  • Louisiana's 7th congressional district: Republican incumbent Charles Boustany was re-elected in 2006 with 70% of the vote, but faces a challenge from Don Cravins Jr.,[98] a Democratic state Senator. Cravins holds several conservative views, such as support for gun owners' rights,[99] and has been identified by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee as a top recruit.[100] Boustany has the advantage that this southern Louisiana district gave George W. Bush 60% of the vote in 2004, as well as more cash-on-hand.[101]

Maine

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Maine, 2008

Maryland

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Maryland, 2008
  • Maryland's 4th congressional district: After edging out political upstart Donna Edwards in 2006, Democratic Congressman Al Wynn (D) was soundly defeated by her in the Democratic primary in 2008. The primary had become increasingly negative, with Edwards accusing Wynn of supporting special interest legislation and Wynn accusing Edwards of failing to pay taxes during the 1990s.[107] After his primary loss, Wynn resigned in June to take up a job at a lobbying firm. Edwards was then elected in a special election for the seat.[108] In the November general elections, Edwards will face Republican Peter James and Green Party candidate Brian Crider.[109] The district, which includes portions of Prince George's county and Montgomery county, is overwhelmingly Democratic: Kerry won 78% here in 2004 (CPVI=D+30).

Massachusetts

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Massachusetts, 2008

All ten of Massachusetts's Representatives (all Democrats) are expected to win reelection without competition or against minor Republican opposition.

Michigan

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Michigan, 2008
  • Michigan's 9th congressional district: In January 2006, Joe Knollenberg (R) announced his intent to seek re-election in 2008. Knollenberg spent $2.7 million to keep his seat in the House.[111] Although his past Democratic opponents have not received support from the national party, the seat has now been identified as a "target" for the Democrats in 2008,[112] as the DCCC is targeting districts where Republicans garnered less than 55% of the vote.[113] Knollenberg, who will be 75 in 2008, won only 52% of the vote in 2006 in this eastern Oakland County district that gave George W. Bush only 50% of the vote in 2004 (CPVI=R+0) and is far from the Republican stronghold it once was. The district was once the most Republican in Metro Detroit, having sent Knollenberg's predecessor, Republican Bill Broomfield, to Congress for 36 years. The only Democrat to officially run is Michigan Lottery Commissioner Gary Peters, the 2002 Democratic nominee for state Attorney General and former State Senator.[114] Radio talk show hostess Nancy Skinner, who was Knollenberg's 2006 opponent, decided not to run.[115] Controversial and well known pathologist Dr. Jack Kevorkian announced he is running as an independent candidate.[116]

Minnesota

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Minnesota, 2008
  • Minnesota's 2nd congressional district: Three-term Republican John Kline represents the Twin Cities southern suburbs. This year, he faces a challenge from Democrat Steve Sarvi, an Iraq War veteran and former mayor of Watertown. The district leans Republican: Bush won 54% here in 2004. Kline's stronger fundraising makes him the favorite to hold this district [117].
  • Minnesota's 3rd congressional district: Jim Ramstad (R) is retiring and will not seek a tenth term;[118] there is likely to be a close race in this district, which includes the Twin Cities southern suburbs: George W. Bush barely won with 51% to 49% for John Kerry in 2004 (CPVI=R+1). Ramstad was re-elected in 2006 with 65% to Democrat Wendy Wilde's 35%. Some Democrats think that Ramstad had managed to keep his seat for so long (since 1991) because he had never faced a strong opponent and because of his very moderate social positions.[118] Both parties have rallied around consensus candidates. In a major surprise, Iraq War veteran Ashwin Madia[119] has won the Democratic nomination. Republican state Representative and former state house majority leader Erik Paulsen has announced his candidacy.[120] This will be a top priority for both Democrats and Republicans. David Dillon of the Independence Party is also running.[121]
  • Minnesota's 6th congressional district: Michelle Bachman (R) was one of the GOP's success stories in 2006, defeating Patty Wetterling (DFL) by a larger-than-expected margin. Former state Transportation Commissioner Elwyn Tinklenberg is running as a Democrat [122], and is a moderate who ran in 2006 but lost the nomination to the more liberal Wetterling. Bachman attracted controversy in an October interview on Hardball with Chris Matthews, where she stated her wish for the media to look into members on Congress to see if they are "pro-American or anti-American." The controversy has financially benefitted Tinklenberg's campaign [123]. Bush won this suburban district north of the Twin Cities by 56% to 44% in 2004 (CPVI=R+6).

Mississippi

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Mississippi, 2008

Missouri

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Missouri, 2008
  • Missouri's 9th congressional district — Incumbent Kenny Hulshof is retiring to run for Governor of Missouri, after having not faced a serious Congressional challenger in the past five election cycles. The district leans Republican but was Democratic until Hulshof's election in 1996, although redistricting in 2000 made the district slightly more Republican-leaning than it was in the 90s. It includes several western St. Charles County suburbs of St. Louis and a large amount of rural areas (which are normally Republican) but also the Democratic leaning college town of Columbia. Democratic state Representative Judy Baker will face Republican state Tourism Director Blaine Luetkemeyer in the general election. Bush won 58% here in 2004 (CPVI=R+7).

Montana

Main article: United States House of Representatives election in Montana, 2008

Montana's sole Congressman, Republican Denny Rehberg is facing only minimal Democratic opposition in his reelection bid.

Nebraska

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Nebraska, 2008
  • Nebraska's 2nd congressional district: In 1999, then freshman incumbent Republican Lee Terry announced that he would break the term-limits pledge he made in his 1998 campaign. This garnered some bad press, but he won three more terms with little trouble. However, in 2006, he won by 55% to 45%, much less than expected in a solidly Republican district. His Democratic opponent in that race, Omaha businessman Jim Esch, is the Democratic nominee to face Terry. This district, consists of most of metropolitan Omaha, leans Republican: Bush won 60% here in 2004.

Nevada

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Nevada, 2008
  • Nevada's 2nd congressional district: Republican Dean Heller was elected to this seat with 50% of the vote in 2006. University of Nevada Regent Jill Derby, his 2006 opponent, who has since become Chair of the Nevada Democratic Party will run again. The district, which includes Reno and most of the state's land area outside of metropolitan Las Vegas, is Republican leaning: Bush won 57% here in 2004.
  • Nevada's 3rd congressional district: Republican Jon Porter won by only 48% to 46% in 2006 against a former aide to U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, and 54% in 2004. Porter could face another tough race in this suburban Las Vegas district. George W. Bush barely won this district with 50% to 49% for John Kerry in 2004 (CPVI=D+1). Leading Democratic candidates included Fraud Examiner Andrew Martin and Clark County prosecutor Robert Daskas, but Daskas dropped out in late April, citing family concerns. After losing their top candidate, the Democratic Party has quickly recruited Nevada Senate Minority Leader Dina Titus. [124] Also running are Bob Giaquinta of the Green Party, Floyd Fitzgibbons of the Independent American Party, Joseph P. Silvestri of the Libertarian Party, and independent Jeffrey C. Reeves.

New Hampshire

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in New Hampshire, 2008
  • New Hampshire's 1st congressional district: Democrat Carol Shea-Porter squeaked into Congress by a 51% to 49% margin against incumbent Republican Jeb Bradley in one of the greatest upsets of the 2006 election cycle. Bradley is again the Republican nominee. He faced and defeated Former Assistant Attorney General and Department of Health and Human Services commissioner John Stephen in a close Republican primary. George W. Bush narrowly won this district, which consists of the eastern half of the state including Manchester, with 51% to 49% for John Kerry in 2004 (CPVI=R+0).
  • New Hampshire's 2nd congressional district: Democrat Paul Hodes upended Republican incumbent Charlie Bass in 2006, taking a 53% to 45% victory in this western New Hampshire district that John Kerry narrowly won with 52% in 2004 (CPVI=D+3). Given that New Hampshire has traditionally leaned Republican – though it has been trending more Democratic recently – the GOP is looking to oppose Hodes. The Republican nominee is radio talk show hostess Jennifer Horn[125].

New Jersey

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in New Jersey, 2008
  • New Jersey's 3rd congressional district: Incumbent Republican Jim Saxton has announced that he will retire at the end of his current term.[126] This suburban Philadelphia district is historically Republican, but George W. Bush barely won with 51% to 49% for John Kerry in 2004 (CPVI=D+3). Also, Al Gore won his district by a significant margin in 2000. Some Democrats think that Saxton had managed to keep his seat for so long (since 1984) because he rarely faced credible opposition. The Republican nominee is Medford Mayor, VP of Lockheed Martin, and Gulf War veteran Chris Myers. State Senator and 1990 Congressional candidate John Adler is the Democratic nominee and could be a formidable candidate, though he faces an outsider disadvantage; his State Senate district's only city that is in the 3rd Congressional District is his home town of Cherry Hill.

New Mexico

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in New Mexico, 2008
  • New Mexico's 3rd congressional district: Democratic incumbent Tom Udall has won his party's nomination for Pete Domenici's open U.S. Senate seat,[132]. The district consists of the northern part of the state, including Santa Fe, and leans Democratic: John Kerry won 54% here (CPVI=D+6). The Democratic nominee is State Public Regulation Commissioner Ben R. Lujan. Lujan's father serves as Speaker of the state House of Representatives. The Republican nominee is small business owner Dan East. Carol Miller a 1997/1998 Green Party candidate is seeking the seat as an independent.[133]
Main article: New Mexico's 3rd congressional district election, 2008

New York

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in New York, 2008
  • New York's 13th congressional district: This Staten Island district is by far the most conservative part of New York City, but it still votes for Democrats in many elections. Republican incumbent Vito Fossella has won by solid margins since first being elected in a 1997 special election. But he was recently arrested on drunk driving charges,[134] which led to the revelation that he had an illegitimate child by a mistress.[135] On May 20, 2008, Fossella announced he would not seek another term, giving ample time for others to decide to run by the September primary.[136] Wall Street executive Francis H. Powers was a Republican candidate until he died on June 22, 2008. Staten Island City Councilman Mike McMahon is the Democratic nominee. Former Assemblyman Bob Straniere of New Dorp is the Republican nominee.
  • New York's 19th congressional district: Populist soft rock singer John Hall (D) won a major upset by some 6,000 votes in 2006, defeating long time incumbent Sue Kelly (R) in this historically Republican district by 51% to 49%. George W. Bush won this district in the Hudson Valley that is home to West Point with 53% of the vote to 45% of the vote for John Kerry in 2004 (CPVI=R+1). Republicans thought they had an excellent chance at unseating Hall with the candidacy of Federal Retirement Thrift Investment Board Chairman Andrew Saul, a wealthy businessman who had outraised Hall during the second quarter of 2007. Saul, later dropped out of the race in November 2007.[137] Westchester County Legislator George Oros announced that he would be a candidate, and noted his history of winning elections in a Democratic-leaning constituency since 1995, Oros dropped out of the race on June 4, 2008.[138] Iraq War veteran Kieran Lalor, a conservative and strong proponent of the war in Iraq,is the presumptive Republican nominee. On May 22, 2008, Republican delegates from each of the five counties represented in the 19th district met in Mahopac, New York to endorse a candidate, and chose candidate Lalor.[139] The NRCC has had difficulty recruiting a top-tier candidate for this historically Republican district.[140][141][142]
  • New York's 20th congressional district: Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand defeated Republican incumbent John Sweeney in 2006 by 53% to 47%, the same margin with which George W. Bush won this district, which includes the north Hudson Valley and Saratoga Springs, in 2004 (CPVI=R+3). Republicans have identified Gillibrand as a top target for 2008, as they believe that Sweeney's personal issues caused his defeat, not a change in voter behavior in this traditional GOP stronghold. Also, Gillibrand's victory was the 15th Democratic pickup that resulted in the Democrats' takeover of the House, as her party needed 15 seats to take over. Former Secretary of State New York Alexander Treadwell, who also served as Chairman of the state GOP, is the Republican nominee. Gillibrand has raised over half a million dollars so far for her re-election, a total matched by Treadwell, who will have a difficult campaign ahead of him to stand out amongst a crowded field. Matt Funicello of the Green Party has also filed to run.[143]
  • New York's 29th congressional district: Randy Kuhl (R) had a close race in 2006, surviving a challenge from Eric Massa (D) by a 52% to 48% margin. His Elmira and suburban Rochester district gave Bush 56% in 2004 (CPVI=R+5). Kuhl is running for re-election.[148] Massa is again the Democratic nominee. Despite his district being the most Republican in New York, Kuhl has had multiple difficult re-elections in the past.

North Carolina

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in North Carolina, 2008
  • North Carolina's 8th congressional district: Republican Robin Hayes barely hung on in his 2006 re-election bid against Democrat Larry Kissell by a 329-vote margin. This seat likely will be competitive again in 2008 because of Hayes' vote for CAFTA, which he first opposed but voted for because of pressure from House Republican leaders. Kissell has already declared his candidacy for the 2008 race, and his most well-known potential opponent, state Rep. Rick Glazier, opted not to run.[149] This Piedmont area district leans Republican: Bush won 54% here in 2004.

North Dakota

Main article: United States House of Representatives election in North Dakota, 2008

North Dakota's sole Congressman, Democrat Earl Pomeroy, is expected to be easily reelected over minimal Republican opposition.

Ohio

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Ohio, 2008
  • Ohio's 1st congressional district: Republican Steve Chabot won by 52% to 48% in 2006, compared to 60% to 40% in 2004. His district barely went to George W. Bush with 50% to 49% for John Kerry in 2004 and includes the western portion of the Cincinnati area. State House Democratic Whip Steve Driehaus is the Democratic nominee. Driehaus' FEC report at the end of the second quarter of 2007 showed contributions from political committees linked to a large number of national leaders of the Democratic Party.[citation needed]
  • Ohio's 2nd congressional district: Republican Jean Schmidt barely held on by a 51% to 49% margin against Democratic physician Victoria Wulsin. Her district is a heavily Republican one, covering the eastern portions of Greater Cincinnati, but she has never had an easy primary or general election. This year, she defeated state Representative Tom Brinkman in the Republican primary by a margin of 57% to 40%. Wulsin is running again in 2008. Bush won 64% here in 2004
See also: Ohio's 11th congressional district special election, 2008
  • Ohio's 15th congressional district: Republican Deborah Pryce survived the toughest race of her career against Democratic Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy by 1,062 votes. Pryce is not running for re-election in 2008. Kilroy is again the Democratic nominee. Republican state Senator and Iraq War veteran Steve Stivers is the Republican nominee, winning his party's primary with 65%. George W. Bush barely won here in 2004 with 50.3% to 49.7% for John Kerry. A September 22 poll shows Kilroy with a 47% to 42% lead over Stivers.[159] This district, which includes much of Columbus and western suburbs, does not clearly favor either party: Bush won 50% here in 2004.
  • Ohio's 18th congressional district: Democrat Zack Space may be vulnerable in 2008 as his district, located in southeastern Ohio, went to George W. Bush with 57% to 43% for John Kerry in 2004, although Space won his first term in 2006 with 62% of the vote. Republicans were forced to select a new candidate — state Senator Joy Padgett — after Rep. Bob Ney dropped out of the race following his conviction in the Jack Abramoff lobbying scandal. It turned out that Padgett had financial controversies of her own, and local voters were in no mood to tolerate more scandal. The Republican nominee is former state Agriculture Director Fred Dailey, who won a four-candidate primary with 39%.

Oklahoma

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Oklahoma, 2008

All five seats are considered 'Safe' for their Republican (4) or Democratic (1) incumbents.

Oregon

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Oregon, 2008
  • Oregon's 5th congressional district: Darlene Hooley (D) announced that she would not seek re-election. This district will be competitive given that, in this Willamette Valley district, George W. Bush took 50% to 49% for John Kerry in 2004 (CPVI=D+1). Hooley was re-elected in 2006 with 54% to her closest opponent's 43%. Her 2006 opponent, businessman Mike Erickson (R), narrowly defeated former state Rep. and gubernatorial candidate Kevin Mannix in the Republican primary by a 48% to 46% margin.[162] Among Democrats, Kurt Schrader, a State Senator from Canby, defeated several candidates to win his party's nomination.[163] Alex Polikoff of the Pacific Green Party has also announced his candidacy for the general election.[164] The latest poll by Survey USA shows Schrader leading by 13 points,[165] and Erickson has been damaged by charges that he paid a for the abortion of a girlfriend several years ago.

Pennsylvania

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Pennsylvania, 2008
  • Pennsylvania's 3rd congressional district: Phil English (R) could have a test in 2008, as he represents an Erie-based district that gave George W. Bush 53% of the vote and 47% of its vote to John Kerry in 2004. Also, in 2006, English received 54% of the vote against a newcomer with no political experience. Despite the presence of solidly Democratic Erie, only two Democrats have represented the district and its predecessors since 1893, and the district has historically been friendly to moderate Republicans. Civic Leader, Erie Arboretum director, and businesswoman Kathy Dahlkemper is the Democratic candidate.
  • Pennsylvania's 4th congressional district: Jason Altmire (D) defeated incumbent Melissa Hart (R) in a 52% to 48% upset, as Hart had won 63% of the vote in 2004, when George W. Bush carried this suburban Pittsburgh district with 53% to 45% for John Kerry. In 2006, Pennsylvania was perhaps the most disastrous state for incumbent GOP House members, who lost four seats here. Hart has announced she will run again and Republicans have high hopes for her campaign. Her campaign released a poll which shows Altmire leading by a 49% to 44% margin.[166]
  • Pennsylvania's 6th congressional district: Jim Gerlach (R) survived threats from wealthy attorney Lois Murphy in 2004 and 2006 with 51% each year and could face another for his suburban Philadelphia district in 2008, which went to John Kerry with 51% in 2004. The Democratic nominee is former businessman Bob Roggio.
  • Pennsylvania's 10th congressional district: Chris Carney (D) may face a difficult re-election bid in this district that he won after widely-publicized allegations of incumbent Republican Don Sherwood’s extramarital affair with and alleged abuse of Cynthia Ore, who later settled for an undisclosed amount. Carney defeated Sherwood 53% to 47%. However, this district in the northeastern part of the state has a considerable Republican tilt: Bush won 60% here in 2004. Chris Hackett, a successful CPA, is the Republican nominee. Hackett defeated Dan Meuser, the head of Pride Mobility in the April 22 Republican primary. Meuser was embarrassed when it was revealed that his business was fined for employing illegal aliens in 1997.[168] Bush won here 60% to 40%.
  • Pennsylvania's 11th congressional district: Incumbent Paul Kanjorski (D) has seldom had difficulty at the polls, but this year could be different. He faces a challenge from Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta.[169] Barletta ran against Kanjorski in 2002, losing by 14 points, but then he was not widely known and was heavily outspent. Now, he's a nationally recognized opponent of illegal immigration, which gives him name recognition and a potential fundraising base he didn't have before.[citation needed] A mid-September poll by Franklin & Marshall College shows Barletta pulling ahead of Kanjorski by a 44% to 35% margin.[170] This district, which includes Scranton and Wilkes-Barre, leans Democratic: Kerry won 53% here in 2004.
  • Pennsylvania's 12th congressional district For years, incumbent Democrat John Murtha was reelected with minimal opposition in this Johnstown based district, partly due to his pro-life, pro-military views. However, Murtha may have damaged his reelection prospects when he said that western Pennsylvania was "a racist area."[171] Murtha also stated in another interview that his district used to be redneck. [172] His Republican challenger, retired military officer Bill Russell, surprised many by raising $2 million. Kerry won this district with 51% in 2004.
  • Pennsylvania's 15th congressional district: Charlie Dent (R) could face a tough race in 2008. He won 53% of the vote against a political newcomer with no political experience in a district that narrowly went to John Kerry with 50% in 2004. His district covers the Lehigh Valley region and is politically marginal. Allentown Democratic Party chairwoman Sam Bennett is the Democratic nominee.
  • Pennsylvania's 18th congressional district: Tim Murphy (R) was re-elected in 2006 with 58% of the vote against a little-known Democrat in this suburban Pittsburgh district that George W. Bush won here with 54% to 46% for John Kerry in 2004, an indication that Murphy could be vulnerable against a stronger opponent. The Democratic nominee is self-funding businessman Steve O'Donnell.

Rhode Island

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Rhode Island, 2008

Rhode Island's two Congressmen (both Democrats) are facing minimal opposition in their reelection bids.

South Carolina

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in South Carolina, 2008
  • South Carolina's 1st congressional district: Republican incumbent Henry Brown has won by safe margins since first being elected in 2000. The district stretches from Seabrook Island in the south to the North Carolina border and includes parts of Charleston, Dorchester, Berkeley and Georgetown counties and all of Horry County. The Democratic nominee is small business owner and community activist Linda Ketner, who has proven to be able to raise the funds to wage a competitive campaign in this district.[173] Ketner also may to benefit from a high black turnout caused by Barack Obama's campaign.[174] Bush won 61% here in 2004 (CPI R+10)
  • South Carolina's 2nd congressional district: Republican incumbent Joe Wilson has easily held this seat since being elected in 2001. However, Democratic nominee and Iraq War veteran Rob Miller has been surprisingly successful at raising money in this contest.[175][176] Additionally, Miller may benefit from a high African-American turnout caused by Barack Obama's campaign, as more than a quarter of the district is black.[174] Bush won 60% in this metro-Columbia based district in 2004, giving Wilson the advantage here. (CPI R+9)

South Dakota

Main article: United States House of Representatives election in South Dakota, 2008

South Dakota's sole Congressman, Democrat Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, is expected to be reelected over minimal Republican opposition.

Tennessee

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Tennessee, 2008
  • Tennessee's 1st congressional district: Freshman Republican incumbent David Davis was narrowly defeated for renomination by Johnson City Mayor Phil Roe by a margin of 50% to 49% (only 500 votes).[177] Davis was elected in 2006, succeeding retiring congressman Bill Jenkins, winning the Republican nomination over a crowded field which included Roe. Roe, a retired OB/GYN, was endorsed by several local newspapers, refused PAC or special interest money and promises not to serve any more then ten years in Congress. Roe should easily win in this Eastern Tennessee district, which has only elected Republicans since 1880, and where Bush won 68% in 2004. The Democratic nominee is Rob Russell, a teacher at East Tennessee State University.

Texas

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Texas, 2008
  • Texas's 7th congressional district: In this Houston based district Republican incumbent John Culberson faces a challenge from Democrat Michael Skelly, a wind energy executive. Skelly is well-funded, but faces an uphill climb in this Republican- leaning district, which Bush won by 64% in 2004.[178]
  • Texas's 10th congressional district: Second term Republican incumbent Michael McCaul won reelection by only 55% in 2006 against an underfunded opponent, a relatively weak result in a district Bush won with 62% in 2004. The district stretches from Austin to Houston' western suburbs. The Democratic nominee is trial lawyer Larry Joe Doherty, who has proven to be a successful fundraiser.[178]
  • Texas's 22nd congressional district: This seat was vacated by former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, who resigned amid reports over his campaign finance activities. Democrat Nick Lampson won the general election, facing only a Libertarian and write-in opposition from Republicans. Republican Shelley Sekula-Gibbs, a dermatologist and former Houston City Councilwoman, won the special election held on the same day and in which Lampson did not run, and she served as a member of congress for almost two months before Lampson was sworn in. Lampson is running for re-election but is expected to face a difficult race in 2008, as he represents a heavily Republican constituency that voted for George W. Bush over John Kerry by a 2 to 1 (66% to 33%) margin (CPVI=R+15), more than any other district that fell to the Democrats in 2006. In an added development, Lampson has had serious health problems, including recent quadruple heart bypass surgery. The district takes in several wealthy and conservative suburbs south of Houston, including Sugar Land, Pasadena, Pearland, and the Clear Lake area of Houston. This district also includes the NASA Johnson Space Center and Ellington Field. Lampson won the Democrat nomination. The Republican nominee is Pete Olson, who defeated Sekula-Gibbs in a primary runoff. Libertarian John Wieder[179] and Joel West of the Green Party are also running[180] An October 22, 2008, poll by John Zogby and the Houston Chronicle has stated that Olson has a 17 point lead over Lampson.[181][182][183]
  • Texas's 23rd congressional district: Former Democratic Rep. Ciro Rodriguez won a 54% to 46% victory in a runoff against Republican incumbent Henry Bonilla on December 12, 2006. Rodriguez was aided by low turnout, especially in the conservative areas of the district. His seat is a natural target for Republicans in 2008. The district, which is a majority Hispanic one to the south and west of downtown San Antonio, stretching across West Texas into Del Rio and other towns along the Mexican border and Big Bend National Park, reaching all the way to just east of El Paso, is politically marginal. Bexar County Commissioner Lyle Larson won the Republican primary by a 63% to 37% margin, larger than expected. Libertarian Lani Connolly is also running.[179]

Utah

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Utah, 2008
  • Utah's 3rd congressional district: In 2006, Republican incumbent Chris Cannon survived a diffucult Republican primary against businessman John Jacob, who vigorously attacked Cannon's support of amnesty for illegal aliens. Cannon won 56% due mainly to Jacob's last-minute errors. However, Cannon was defeated by gubernatorial chief of staff Jason Chaffetz by a margin of 20% in the Republican primary. The district consists of much of central Utah including Provo and heavily leans Republican: Bush won 77% here in 2004. As a result, Chaffetz is heavily favored over Democratic nominee Bennion L. Spencer in November.

Vermont

Main article: United States House of Representatives election in Vermont, 2008

Vermont's sole Congressman, Democrat Peter Welch, faces no Republican opponent in his reelection bid, having won the Republican nomination himself due to write-in votes. [184]

Virginia

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Virginia, 2008
  • Virginia's 5th congressional district: Originally elected as a Democrat in 1996, Virgil Goode has represented this district as a Republican since 2002. He faces Democrat Tom Perriello this year, who has proven to be a good fundraiser. This district includes much of Southside Virginia: except for Democratic-leaning Charlottesville, the district usually votes Republican: Bush won 56% here in 2004. A recent poll by Survey USA shows Goode leading by 55% to 42%.[188]
  • Virginia's 10th congressional district: Republican incumbent Frank Wolf could face a tough race. The Democratic nominee is Judy Feder, Professor of Public Policy at Georgetown University and former Dean of their Georgetown Public Policy Institute.[189] In 2004 George W. Bush won 55% of this district, which covers Loudoun, Prince William and part of Fairfax counties, as well as Manassas. Wolf defeated Feder in 2006, 57%–41%. That year Democrat Webb won the district 50.0%–48.8% in his Senate race.[190] In 2005 Democrat Tim Kaine won the district by 50% to 46% in his gubernatorial race.[186] CQ Politics rates seat "safe Republican". The DCCC names Wolf a "targeted Republican".[187]
  • Virginia's 11th congressional district: Retiring Republican incumbent Tom Davis toppled one-term Democrat Leslie Byrne in 1994 and rarely faced serious opposition in subsequent years. However, his district, located in the wealthy Northern Virginia suburbs of Washington, DC, has become increasingly Democratic over the years. Now it will definitely be a top Democratic target, given Davis's January 30, 2008, announcement that he will not seek re-election. George W. Bush barely won this district with 50% to 49% for John Kerry, which includes part of Fairfax and Prince William counties, in 2004. The Republican nominee is Keith Fimian, business magnate and former CPA, with personal wealth he is drawing upon.[191] The Democratic nominee is Gerry Connolly, Chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors. CQ Politics rates seat "leans Democratic". The Cook Political Report rates it "lean Democratic". The Rothenberg Political Report scores it "leans Democratic."

Washington

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Washington, 2008
  • Washington's 8th congressional district: Dave Reichert (R) won a close 51% to 49% re-election bid against Democratic former Microsoft product manager Darcy Burner in 2006. Burner has declared her intention to run against Reichert in 2008. Al Gore and John Kerry narrowly won this suburban Seattle district with 52% in 2000 and 2004, respectively. State Senator Rodney Tom, who announced his candidacy, dropped out of the race in 2008 and endorsed Burner.[192] This race will be a top priority for both parties. Burner has received nationwide attention for her work on the Responsible Plan to End the War in Iraq, and is considered a leader among anti-war Democrats.

West Virginia

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in West Virginia, 2008
  • West Virginia's 2nd congressional district: In 2006, incumbent Shelley Moore Capito (R) was re-elected with 57%, a solid margin, but not a sign of political security. She faced a potentially difficult challenge from state Sen. John Unger (D), but Unger surprised many when he dropped out of the race.[193] The DCCC had called this race "a top target," and insist that it is still winnable. The Democratic nominee is Anne Barth,[194] a longtime former aide to U.S. Sen. Robert Byrd.[195] Bush won 57% here in 2004. The district consists of central West Virginia including Charleston: Bush won 57% here in 2004.

Wisconsin

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Wisconsin, 2008
  • Wisconsin's 8th congressional district: Steve Kagen (D) won by a 51% to 49% margin his first term in this Republican-leaning district that went to President George W. Bush with 55% of the vote in 2004. The district is in Wisconsin's northeast corner and includes the city of Green Bay. Kagen will face his 2006 Republican opponent, former State Assembly Speaker John Gard. Kagen garnered bad press when he bragged about speaking rudely to the President and First Lady at a White House function and then retracted this claim. He was the subject of controversy when the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) investigated his clinic for selling allergy vaccines without a valid license, although his clinic stopped the practice. However, Kagen may benefit from the endorsement of the National Rifle Association due to the many hunters in the district. [196]

Wyoming

Main article: United States House of Representatives election in Wyoming, 2008

Non-voting members

Elections for Delegates from the American Samoa, the District of Columbia, Guam and the United States Virgin Islands are expected to be noncompetitive this year. All incumbents running from these At-large districts are expected to be returned to office. The real races will come from just two contests: the Northern Mariana Islands, which are electing their first Delegate to the U.S. House in history, and Puerto Rico.

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in the Northern Mariana Islands, 2008


Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Puerto Rico, 2008

See also

References

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