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This article is about the average temperature at the Earth's surface, in general. For more specific temperature information recorded since the advent of modern scientific monitoring (since about 1850), see Instrumental temperature record.
The blue line represents global surface temperature reconstructed from Year Zero using proxy data from tree rings, corals, and ice cores.[1] The red line shows direct surface temperature measurements since 1880.[2]

Global surface temperature (GST) refers to the average temperature of Earth's surface. It is determined nowadays by measuring the temperatures over the ocean and land, and then calculating a weighted average. The temperature over the ocean is called the sea surface temperature. The temperature over land is called the surface air temperature. Temperature data comes mainly from weather stations and satellites. To estimate data in the distant past, proxy data can be used for example from tree rings, corals, and ice cores.[1] Observing the rising GST over time is one of the many lines of evidence supporting the scientific consensus on climate change, which is that human activities are causing climate change.

Alternative terms for the same thing are global mean surface temperature (GMST) or global average surface temperature.

Series of reliable temperature measurements in some regions began in the 1850—1880 time frame (this is called the instrumental temperature record). Through 1940, the average annual temperature increased, but was relatively stable between 1940 and 1975. Since 1975, it has increased by roughly 0.15 °C to 0.20 °C per decade, to at least 1.1 °C (1.9 °F) above 1880 levels.[3] The current annual GMST is about 15 °C (59 °F),[4] though monthly temperatures can vary almost 2 °C (4 °F) above or below this figure.[5]

Definition

The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report defines global mean surface temperature (GMST) as follows: GMST is the "estimated global average of near-surface air temperatures over land and sea ice, and sea surface temperature (SST) over ice-free ocean regions, with changes normally expressed as departures from a value over a specified reference period".[6]: 2231 

In comparison, the global mean surface air temperature (GSAT) is the "global average of near-surface air temperatures over land, oceans and sea ice. Changes in GSAT are often used as a measure of global temperature change in climate models."[6]: 2231 

Relevance

Changes in global temperatures over the past century provide evidence for the effects of increasing greenhouse gases. When the climate system reacts to such changes, climate change follows. Measurement of the GST(global surface temperature) is one of the many lines of evidence supporting the scientific consensus on climate change, which is that humans are causing warming of Earth's climate system.

Projected global surface temperature changes relative to 1850–1900, based on CMIP6 multi-model mean changes

Measurement and calculation

The global surface temperature (GST) is calculated by averaging the temperatures over sea (sea surface temperature) and land (surface air temperature).

This section is an excerpt from Instrumental temperature record § Methods.[]
Surface air temperature change over the past 50 years.[7]

Instrumental temperature records are based on direct, instrument-based measurements of air temperature and ocean temperature, unlike indirect reconstructions using climate proxy data such as from tree rings and ocean sediments.[8] The longest-running temperature record is the Central England temperature data series, which starts in 1659. The longest-running quasi-global records start in 1850.[9] Temperatures on other time scales are explained in global surface temperature.

Global temperature can have different definitions. There is a small difference between air and surface temperatures.[10]: 12 

Observations

This section is an excerpt from Effects of climate change § Changes in temperature.[]
Over the last 50 years the Arctic has warmed the most, and temperatures on land have generally increased more than sea surface temperatures.[11]

Global warming affects all parts of Earth's climate system.[12] Global surface temperatures have risen by 1.1 °C (2.0 °F). Scientists say they will rise further in the future.[13][14] The changes in climate are not uniform across the Earth. In particular, most land areas have warmed faster than most ocean areas. The Arctic is warming faster than most other regions.[15] Night-time temperatures have increased faster than daytime temperatures.[16] The impact on nature and people depends on how much more the Earth warms.[17]: 787 

Scientists use several methods to predict the effects of human-caused climate change. One is to investigate past natural changes in climate.[18] To assess changes in Earth's past climate scientists have studied tree rings, ice cores, corals, and ocean and lake sediments.[19] These show that recent temperatures have surpassed anything in the last 2,000 years.[20] By the end of the 21st century, temperatures may increase to a level last seen in the mid-Pliocene. This was around 3 million years ago.[21]: 322  At that time, mean global temperatures were about 2–4 °C (3.6–7.2 °F) warmer than pre-industrial temperatures. The global mean sea level was up to 25 metres (82 ft) higher than it is today.[22]: 323  The modern observed rise in temperature and CO2 concentrations has been rapid. even abrupt geophysical events in Earth's history do not approach current rates.[23]: 54 

Effects

Thick orange-brown smoke blocks half a blue sky, with conifers in the foreground
A few grey fish swim over grey coral with white spikes
Desert sand half covers a village of small flat-roofed houses with scattered green trees
large areas of still water behind riverside buildings
Some climate change effects: wildfire caused by heat and dryness, bleached coral caused by ocean acidification and heating, environmental migration caused by desertification, and coastal flooding caused by storms and sea level rise.
This section is an excerpt from Effects of climate change.[]

Effects of climate change are well documented and growing for Earth's natural environment and human societies. Changes to the climate system include an overall warming trend, changes to precipitation patterns, and more extreme weather. As the climate changes it impacts the natural environment with effects such as more intense forest fires, thawing permafrost, and desertification. These changes impact ecosystems and societies, and can become irreversible once tipping points are crossed. Climate activists are engaged in a range of activities around the world that seek to ameloriate these issues or prevent them from happening.[24]

The effects of climate change vary in timing and location. Up until now the Arctic has warmed faster than most other regions due to climate change feedbacks.[15] Surface air temperatures over land have also increased at about twice the rate they do over the ocean, causing intense heat waves. These temperatures would stabilize if greenhouse gas emissions were brought under control. Ice sheets and oceans absorb the vast majority of excess heat in the atmosphere, delaying effects there but causing them to accelerate and then continue after surface temperatures stabilize. Sea level rise is a particular long term concern as a result. The effects of ocean warming also include marine heatwaves, ocean stratification, deoxygenation, and changes to ocean currents.[25]: 10  The ocean is also acidifying as it absorbs carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.[26]

The ecosystems most immediately threatened by climate change are in the mountains, coral reefs, and the Arctic. Excess heat is causing environmental changes in those locations that exceed the ability of animals to adapt.[27] Species are escaping heat by migrating towards the poles and to higher ground when they can.[28] Sea level rise threatens coastal wetlands with flooding. Decreases in soil moisture in certain locations can cause desertification and damage ecosystems like the Amazon Rainforest.[29]: 9  At 2 °C (3.6 °F) of warming, around 10% of species on land would become critically endangered.[30]: 259 

Global temperature record

For more recent temperature changes, measured with scientific instruments, see Instrumental temperature record.
For records of extreme weather events, see List of weather records.
For temperature changes on other time scales, see Geologic temperature record.


Temperature record of the last 2,000 years (Chart showing the so-called Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age were not planet-wide phenomena)

The global temperature record shows the fluctuations of the temperature of the atmosphere and the oceans through various spans of time. There are numerous estimates of temperatures since the end of the Pleistocene glaciation, particularly during the current Holocene epoch. Some temperature information is available through geologic evidence, going back millions of years. More recently, information from ice cores covers the period from 800,000 years before the present time until now. A study of the paleoclimate covers the time period from 12,000 years ago to the present. Tree rings and measurements from ice cores can give evidence about the global temperature from 1,000-2,000 years before the present until now. The most detailed information exists since 1850, when methodical thermometer-based records began. Modifications on the Stevenson-type screen were made for uniform instrument measurements around 1880.[31]

Geologic evidence (millions of years)

Reconstruction of the past 5 million years of climate history, based on oxygen isotope fractionation in deep sea sediment cores (serving as a proxy for the total global mass of glacial ice sheets), fitted to a model of orbital forcing (Lisiecki and Raymo 2005)[32] and to the temperature scale derived from Vostok ice cores following Petit et al. (1999).[33]
Main article: Geologic temperature record

On longer time scales, sediment cores show that the cycles of glacials and interglacials are part of a deepening phase within a prolonged ice age that began with the glaciation of Antarctica approximately 40 million years ago. This deepening phase, and the accompanying cycles, largely began approximately 3 million years ago with the growth of continental ice sheets in the Northern Hemisphere. Gradual changes in Earth's climate of this kind have been frequent during the existence of planet Earth. Some of them are attributed to changes in the configuration of continents and oceans due to continental drift.[citation needed]

Ice cores (from 800,000 years before present)

Temperature estimates over 800,000 years of the EPICA ice cores in Antarctica. Temperatures are in Celsius relative to the average of the most recent 1,000 years; year 0 is 1950.

Even longer term records exist for few sites: the recent Antarctic EPICA core reaches 800 kyr; many others reach more than 100,000 years. The EPICA core covers eight glacial/interglacial cycles. The NGRIP core from Greenland stretches back more than 100 kyr, with 5 kyr in the Eemian interglacial. Whilst the large-scale signals from the cores are clear, there are problems interpreting the detail, and connecting the isotopic variation to the temperature signal.

Ice core locations

[34]

The World Paleoclimatology Data Center (WDC) maintains the ice core data files of glaciers and ice caps in polar and low latitude mountains all over the world.

Ice core records from Greenland

As a paleothermometry, the ice core in central Greenland showed consistent records on the surface-temperature changes.[35] According to the records, changes in global climate are rapid and widespread. Warming phase only needs simple steps, however, the cooling process requires more prerequisites and bases.[36] Also, Greenland has the clearest record of abrupt climate changes in the ice core, and there are no other records that can show the same time interval with equally high time resolution.[35]

When scientists explored the trapped gas in the ice core bubbles, they found that the methane concentration in Greenland ice core is significantly higher than that in Antarctic samples of similar age, the records of changes of concentration difference between Greenland and Antarctic reveal variation of latitudinal distribution of methane sources.[37] Increase in methane concentration shown by Greenland ice core records implies that the global wetland area has changed greatly over past years.[38] As a component of greenhouse gases, methane plays an important role in global warming. The variation of methane from Greenland records makes a unique contribution for global temperature records undoubtedly.

Ice core records from Antarctica

The Antarctic ice sheet originated in the late Eocene, the drilling has restored a record of 800,000 years in Dome Concordia, and it is the longest available ice core in Antarctica. In recent years, more and more new studies have provided older but discrete records.[39] Due to the uniqueness of the Antarctic ice sheet, the Antarctic ice core not only records the global temperature changes, but also contains huge quantities of information about the global biogeochemical cycles, climate dynamics and abrupt changes in global climate.[40]

By comparing with current climate records, the ice core records in Antarctica further confirm that polar amplification.[41] Although Antarctica is covered by the ice core records, the density is rather low considering the area of Antarctica. Exploring more drilling stations is the primary goal for current research institutions.

Ice core records from low-latitude regions

The ice core records from low-latitude regions are not as common as records from polar regions, however, these records still provide much useful information for scientists. Ice cores in low-latitude regions usually locates in high altitude areas. The Guliya record is the longest record from low-latitude, high altitude regions, which spans over 700,000 years.[42] According to these records, scientists found the evidence which can prove the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) was colder in the tropics and subtropics than previously believed.[43] Also, the records from low-latitude regions helped scientists confirm that the 20th century was the warmest period in the last 1000 years.[42]

Paleoclimate (from 12,000 years before present)

Plot showing the variations, and relative stability, of climate during the last 12000 years.
Main article: Paleoclimatology

Many estimates of past temperatures have been made over Earth's history. The field of paleoclimatology includes ancient temperature records. As the present article is oriented toward recent temperatures, there is a focus here on events since the retreat of the Pleistocene glaciers. The 10,000 years of the Holocene epoch covers most of this period, since the end of the Northern Hemisphere's Younger Dryas millennium-long cooling. The Holocene Climatic Optimum was generally warmer than the 20th century, but numerous regional variations have been noted since the start of the Younger Dryas.

Tree rings and ice cores (from 1,000–2,000 years before present)

Proxy measurements can be used to reconstruct the temperature record before the historical period. Quantities such as tree ring widths, coral growth, isotope variations in ice cores, ocean and lake sediments, cave deposits, fossils, ice cores, borehole temperatures, and glacier length records are correlated with climatic fluctuations. From these, proxy temperature reconstructions of the last 2000 years have been performed for the northern hemisphere, and over shorter time scales for the southern hemisphere and tropics.[44][45][46]

Geographic coverage by these proxies is necessarily sparse, and various proxies are more sensitive to faster fluctuations. For example, tree rings, ice cores, and corals generally show variation on an annual time scale, but borehole reconstructions rely on rates of thermal diffusion, and small scale fluctuations are washed out. Even the best proxy records contain far fewer observations than the worst periods of the observational record, and the spatial and temporal resolution of the resulting reconstructions is correspondingly coarse. Connecting the measured proxies to the variable of interest, such as temperature or rainfall, is highly non-trivial. Data sets from multiple complementary proxies covering overlapping time periods and areas are reconciled to produce the final reconstructions.[46][47]

Proxy reconstructions extending back 2,000 years have been performed, but reconstructions for the last 1,000 years are supported by more and higher quality independent data sets. These reconstructions indicate:[46]

Indirect historical proxies

As well as natural, numerical proxies (tree-ring widths, for example) there exist records from the human historical period that can be used to infer climate variations, including: reports of frost fairs on the Thames; records of good and bad harvests; dates of spring blossom or lambing; extraordinary falls of rain and snow; and unusual floods or droughts.[49] Such records can be used to infer historical temperatures, but generally in a more qualitative manner than natural proxies.

Recent evidence suggests that a sudden and short-lived climatic shift between 2200 and 2100 BCE occurred in the region between Tibet and Iceland, with some evidence suggesting a global change. The result was a cooling and reduction in precipitation. This is believed to be a primary cause of the collapse of the Old Kingdom of Egypt.[50]

Instrumental temperature records (1850–present)

Global average temperature datasets from various scientific organizations show substantial agreement concerning the progress and extent of global warming: pairwise correlations of 1850+/1880+ datasets exceed 99.1%.
In recent decades, new high temperature records have substantially outpaced new low temperature records on a growing portion of Earth's surface.[51] Comparison shows seasonal variability.
A climate spiral depicting monthly anomalies in global temperature from 1880 till 2021.
This section is an excerpt from Instrumental temperature record.[]

The instrumental temperature record is a record of temperatures within Earth's climate based on direct measurement of air temperature and ocean temperature. Instrumental temperature records do not use indirect reconstructions using climate proxy data such as from tree rings and marine sediments.[8] Instead, data is collected from thousands of meteorological stations, buoys and ships around the globe. Areas that are densely populated tend to have a high density of measurement points. In contrast, temperature observations are more spread out in sparsely populated areas such as polar regions and deserts, as well as in many regions of Africa and South America.[52] In the past, thermometers were read manually to record temperatures. Nowadays, measurements are usually connected with electronic sensors which transmit data automatically. Surface temperature data is usually presented as anomalies rather than as absolute values. A temperature anomaly is presented compared to a reference value, also called baseline period or long-term average, usually a period of 30 years. For example, a commonly used baseline period is the time period from 1951 to 1980.

The longest-running temperature record is the Central England temperature data series, which starts in 1659. The longest-running quasi-global records start in 1850.[9] For temperature measurements in the upper atmosphere a variety of methods can be used. This includes radiosondes launched using weather balloons, a variety of satellites, and aircraft.[53] Satellites can monitor temperatures in the upper atmosphere but are not commonly used to measure temperature change at the surface. Ocean temperatures at different depths are measured to add to global surface temperature datasets. This data is also used to calculate the ocean heat content.

The data clearly shows a rising trend in global average surface temperatures (i.e. global warming) and this is due to emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities. The global average and combined land and ocean surface temperature show a warming of 1.09 °C (range: 0.95 to 1.20 °C) from 1850–1900 to 2011–2020, based on multiple independently produced datasets.[54]: 5  The trend is faster since 1970s than in any other 50-year period over at least the last 2000 years.[54]: 8  Within that upward trend, some variability in temperatures happens because of natural internal variability (for example due to El Niño–Southern Oscillation).

See also

References

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