Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election is being carried out continually by various organisations to gauge voting intention.
| Opinion polling for UK general elections |
|---|
| 2015 election |
| Opinion polls • Leadership approval |
| 2017 election |
| Opinion polls • Leadership approval |
| 2019 election |
| Opinion polls • Leadership approval |
| 2024 election |
| Opinion polls • Leadership approval |
| Next election |
| Opinion polls • Leadership approval |
Background
Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules. The dates for these opinion polls range from the 2024 general election on 4 July to the present day.
Under the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022, the next general election must be held no later than Wednesday 15 August 2029. The Act mandates that, if it has not already been dissolved at the request of the prime minister, Parliament automatically dissolves five years after it first met and polling day occurs no more than 25 working days later.
Opinion polling
Election polling
Most national opinion polls do not cover Northern Ireland, which has different major political parties from the rest of the United Kingdom. This distinction is made in the tables below in the area column, where "GB" means Great Britain (England, Scotland and Wales), and "UK" means the entire United Kingdom. Plaid Cymru only stand candidates in Wales and the Scottish National Party only stand candidates in Scotland. Due to rounding total figures might not add up to 100%.
| Dates conducted |
Pollster | Client | Area | Sample size |
Lab | Con | Reform | Lib Dems | Green | SNP | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11–12 Jul | We Think | GB | 2,005 | 39% | 20% | 16% | 11% | 9% | 2% | TBA | 19 | |
| 4 Jul 2024 | 2024 general election | – | UK | – | 33.7% | 23.7% | 14.3% | 12.2% | 6.8% | 2.5% | 6.8% | 10.0 |
| GB | 34.7% | 24.4% | 14.7% | 12.5% | 6.9% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 10.3 |
Leadership approval polling
Various organisations have carried out opinion polling to gauge the opinions that voters hold towards political leaders. The polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.
| Dates conducted |
Pollster | Sample size |
Keir Starmer | Rishi Sunak | Nigel Farage | Ed Davey | Carla Denyer | Adrian Ramsay | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pos. | Neg. | Net | Pos. | Neg. | Net | Pos. | Neg. | Net | Pos. | Neg. | Net | Pos. | Neg. | Net | Pos. | Neg. | Net | |||
| 5–6 Aug 2024 | YouGov | 2,163 | 37% | 53% | –16% | 23% | 71% | –48% | 25% | 67% | –42% | – | – | – | ||||||
| 31 Jul – 2 Aug 2024 | Opinium | 2,063 | 35% | 32% | +3% | 18% | 48% | –30% | 25% | 40% | –15% | 24% | 19% | +5% | 19% | 17% | +2% | 19% | 17% | +2% |
| 30–31 Jul 2024 | YouGov | 2,233 | 40% | 49% | –9% | 23% | 70% | –47% | 27% | 62% | –35% | 27% | 33% | –6% | 9% | 12% | –3% | 3% | 10% | –7% |
| 17–19 Jul 2024 | Opinium | 2,010 | 38% | 20% | +18% | 20% | 42% | –22% | – | 25% | 18% | +7% | 21% | 15% | +6% | 21% | 15% | +6% | ||
| 8–14 Jul 2024 | Morning Consult | – | 45% | 25% | +20% | – | – | – | – | – | ||||||||||
| 11–12 Jul 2024 | We Think | 2,005 | 38% | 15% | +23% | 21% | 31% | –10% | – | – | – | – | ||||||||
| 5–8 Jul 2024 | YouGov[1] | 2,102 | 44% | 47% | –3% | 23% | 70% | –47% | 27% | 65% | –38% | 34% | 29% | +5% | 13% | 16% | –3% | 7% | 14% | –7% |
| 5–6 Jul 2024 | Ipsos[2] | 1,141 | 40% | 33% | +7% | 21% | 57% | –36% | 26% | 52% | –26% | 29% | 26% | +3% | – | – | ||||
Party approval polling
| Dates conducted |
Pollster | Sample size |
Lab | Con | Reform | Lib Dems | Green | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pos. | Neg. | Net | Pos. | Neg. | Net | Pos. | Neg. | Net | Pos. | Neg. | Net | Pos. | Neg. | Net | |||
| 30–31 Jul 2024 | YouGov | 2,163 | 39% | 53% | –14 | 23% | 70% | –47 | – | – | – | ||||||
| 5–8 Jul 2024 | YouGov[1] | 2,102 | 47% | 46% | +1 | 21% | 72% | –51 | 28% | 62% | –34 | 45% | 37% | +8 | 46% | 38% | +8 |
| 5–6 Jul 2024 | Ipsos[2] | 1,141 | 40% | 34% | +6 | 20% | 59% | –39 | 25% | 51% | –26 | 29% | 28% | +1 | 33% | 28% | +6 |
Preferred prime minister polling
Some opinion pollsters ask voters which of the party leaders they would prefer as prime minister:
| Dates conducted |
Pollster | Sample size |
Keir Starmer | Rishi Sunak | Nigel Farage | Ed Davey | Carla Denyer | Adrian Ramsay | None | Don't know | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jul – 2 Aug 2024 | Opinium | 2,063 | 38% | 14% | – | – | – | – | 37% | 11% | 24 |
| 17–19 Jul 2024 | Opinium | 2,010 | 37% | 14% | – | – | – | – | 34% | 15% | 23 |
| 11–12 Jul 2024 | We Think | 2,005 | 30% | 11% | 14% | 5% | 4% | 1% | 33% | 16 | |
References
- ^ a b Smith, Matthew (9 July 2024). "Keir Starmer favourability rises 8pts following election victory". YouGov UK.
- ^ a b "5th – 6th July 2024: PUBLIC: Political Pulse: Campaign Tracker Week 7: Post election: Adults aged 18+ in GB" (PDF). Ipsos.
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