| Elections in New Mexico |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in New Mexico is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. New Mexico voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of New Mexico has five electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]
Since gaining statehood, New Mexico has voted for the winner of the popular vote in every presidential election except for 1976 (only backing the losing candidate by 2.47% and 10,271 votes) and in addition to its bellwether status is today a moderately blue state, with Democrats holding all statewide offices since 2019 and Democratic presidential candidates consistently winning the state since 2008. New Mexico's Democratic lean can be largely credited to the state's sizeable Latino population, which in recent years has become a plurality. The state is favored to remain in the Democratic column in 2024.[2]
Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for reelection to a second term.[3] If he carries New Mexico while losing the national popular vote, he will be only the second to do so in New Mexico history, joining Republican Gerald Ford in 1976.
Primary elections
Democratic primary
The New Mexico Democratic primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia, Montana, New Jersey, and South Dakota.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 110,399 | 83.5% | 34 | 34 | |
| Uncommitted | 12,877 | 9.7% | |||
| Marianne Williamson | 8,904 | 6.7% | |||
| Total: | 132,180 | 100.0% | 34 | 11 | 45 |
| Source: [4] | |||||
Republican primary
The New Mexico Republican primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in Montana, New Jersey, and South Dakota.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 78,912 | 84.5% | |||
| Nikki Haley (withdrawn) | 8,036 | 8.6% | |||
| Uncommitted | 3,128 | 3.3% | |||
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 2,426 | 2.6% | |||
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 884 | 0.9% | |||
| Total: | 93,386 | 100.00% | 22 | 0 | 22 |
| Source: [5] | |||||
Libertarian primary
The New Mexico Libertarian primary was held on June 6, 2024. 9 days after the 2024 Libertarian National Convention was held.[6]
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| Lars Mapstead | 432 | 56.5% |
| None of the Above | 332 | 43.5% |
| Total: | 764 | 100.0% |
| Source:[7] | ||
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[8] | Likely D | June 12, 2024 |
| Inside Elections[9] | Solid D | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[10] | Likely D | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[11] | Likely D | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[12] | Solid D | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[13] | Lean D | January 14, 2024 |
| The Economist[14] | Lean D | June 12, 2024 |
| 538[15] | Likely D | June 11, 2024 |
| RCP[16] | Lean D | June 26, 2024 |
Polling
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[A] | June 13–14, 2024 | 555 (V) | ± 4.2% | 48% | 41% | 11% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | August 23–24, 2023 | 767 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 41% | 10% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | May 6–8, 2023 | 500 (LV) | – | 49% | 38% | 13% |
| Emerson College | October 25–28, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 38% | 14% |
| Emerson College | September 8–11, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 41% | 12% |
- Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D) | August 23–24, 2023 | 767 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 43% | 9% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | May 6–8, 2023 | 500 (LV) | – | 45% | 43% | 12% |
See also
- United States presidential elections in New Mexico
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
- Partisan clients
- ^ Poll commissioned by the New Mexico Political Report
References
- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
- ^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
- ^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
- ^ "New Mexico Democratic Primary Election Results". The New York Times. Retrieved June 4, 2024.
- ^ "New Mexico Republican Primary Election Results". The New York Times. Retrieved June 4, 2024.
- ^ "Become Ungovernable". 2024 Libertarian National Convention. Retrieved June 22, 2024.
- ^ "Unofficial Results 2024 Primary June 4, 2024". New Mexico Secretary of State. Retrieved June 22, 2024.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
- ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
- ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
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